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months.Meanwhile, markets have already priced in a rate hike. In the first month of the war, global short- and long-term government bond yields have risen significantly, as bond markets have been repricing them to reflect the rapidly changing outlook for higher inflation.“The unprecedented oil-supply shock caused by war in the Middle East has crushed investors’ former expectations for subdued inflation and dovish central banks’ actions,” Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research, wrote in a recent research note.Read more: How oil price shocks ripple through your wallet, from gas to groceriesFed Chair Jerome Powell said this past week that the central bank has traditionally looked through oil price shocks and not taken action, but policymakers can’t ignore that the increase in oil prices comes amid inflation that has remained above the Fed’s 2% goal for five years now.At least two Fed members are suggesting the Fed shouldn’t look through the oil price shock. “With inflation already running hot, now is not the time to assume that the inflation from higher oil prices will be transitory,” Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid said in a speech this past week.St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem also cautioned about looking through the spike in oil prices.“It might be tempting to always ‘look through’ the effects of negative supply shocks on inflation and to focus on their impacts on labor markets and growth,” he said. “History suggests caution is warranted, however, especially when underlying inflation is persistently above target.”A critical task for the Fed is carefully monitoring inflation expectations and whether a series of inflation spikes from the pandemic, tariffs, and now oil could lead the public generally — businesses, price setters, and households — to start expecting higher inflation over time.Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all relatedHarvard University professor David Laibson moderates a discussion with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during a Principles of Economics class at Harvard University on March 30, 2026, in Cambridge, Mass. (Sophie Park/Getty Images) · Sophie Park via Getty Images“We’re very mindful of that fact,” Powell said recently. “Inflation expectations do appear to be well anchored beyond the short term, but nonetheless, it’s something, as we will eventually maybe face the question of what to do here.”If longer-term inflation expectations rise above the 2% target, the Fed would need to move.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoTrending tickersBTC-USD Bitcoin USD 67,317.68 -118.11 (-0.18%)ETH-USD Ethereum USD 2,055.21 -4.63 (-0.22%)XRP-USD XRP USD 1.30 -0.01 (-1.06%)SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. 2.4600 +0.0600 (+2.50%)BTC-CAD Bitcoin CAD 93,891.34 -164.73 (-0.18%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersAAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. 103.91 +17.56 (+20.34%)SBAC SBA Communications Corporation 204.04 +32.48 (+18.93%)YSS York Space Systems, Inc. 28.03 +4.43 (+18.77%)VSAT Viasat, Inc. 53.69 +8.46 (+18.70%)LUNR Intuitive Machines, Inc. 23.99 +3.75 (+18.53%)Top losersKNF Knife River Corporation 73.91 -8.20 (-9.99%)WIX Wix.com Ltd. 81.95 -8.55 (-9.45%)PBH Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. 52.48 -5.20 (-9.02%)ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. 34.92 -3.36 (-8.78%)RGC Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited 30.80 -2.92 (-8.66%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 177.39 +1.64 (+0.93%)INTC Intel Corporation 50.38 +2.35 (+4.89%)NOK Nokia Oyj 8.82 +0.55 (+6.65%)PLUG Plug Power Inc. 2.4100 +0.1600 (+7.11%)TSLA Tesla, Inc. 360.59 -20.67 (-5.42%)Top economic eventsEarnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings events