April 6, 2026 Gold Real-Time AnalysisGold vs US DollarPEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDFR_GoldGuideApril 6, 2026 Gold Real-Time Analysis 1️⃣ Non-Farm Payrolls Data – The negative impact has been priced in by the market, but not fully reflected. The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has plummeted from 20% to 2%, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to surge. Key issue: Due to the Good Friday holiday, this significant negative factor has not yet been fully priced into the market. With four hours until the Asian trading session opens, how the market will digest this negative news is the biggest variable on Monday. Two possibilities: Lower opening: Directly reflects the negative impact of the non-farm payrolls data, testing support levels at 4600 or even 4550. Flat opening/slightly lower opening followed by stabilization: Indicates the market believes the negative impact has been priced in, with strong support in the 4550-4600 area. 2️⃣ Geopolitical Situation – Iran's refusal to meet with the US in Islamabad results in a mix of negative factors: geopolitical safe-haven demand (positive) and expectations of interest rate hikes (negative). Currently, the market is in a typical "divergence" state. Technical Analysis Resistance Levels: 4680-4700-4720: Key support levels for bears 4750-4780 4800 Support Levels: 4640-4650: Hourly chart support area 4600: Psychological level/strong support 4550-4560: Weekly chart As shown in the chart: The lower boundary of the upward channel within the $4550-$4600 range has not yet been broken. The medium-term bullish structure remains intact. Core Strategy: "Observe the opening price action, look for support during pullbacks, and don't guess at one-sided trends"—the non-farm payroll data will inevitably be negative, but how the market will digest this data is still unclear. In the first 15-30 minutes after the opening, observe more and trade less, let the market "show its stance," and pay attention to the support reaction in the $4550-$4600 range. Wait for a pullback to go long (preferred). Entry conditions: A pullback to the 4600-4630 area after the market opens, with a 15-minute stabilization signal appearing. Stop-loss level: Below 4580. First target: 4680-4700. Second target: 4750. Do not trade within the first 15 minutes after the market opens: Let the market digest overnight orders and avoid being misled by "false volatility". Do not bet on directional gaps: Negative news from non-farm payroll data and geopolitical risk aversion coexist; both bullish and bearish logics exist, and the probability of successfully betting on a directional gap is very low. Pay attention to the Asian trading session: 6:00-10:00 is the period with the lowest liquidity, and volatility may be amplified. Monday: The Asian trading session will be negatively impacted for the first time by the non-farm payroll data, which will determine the tone of the week's opening. Monday to Wednesday: Developments in the Middle East and progress in ceasefire negotiations will affect the safe-haven premium. Wednesday: US March CPI data released. If inflation exceeds expectations → interest rate hike expectations rise → gold prices pressured; if inflation falls short of expectations → interest rate cut expectations rise → gold prices rebound. Overall trend this week: Continued strength in the US dollar will put downward pressure on gold prices. Core forecast: Gold prices this week may exhibit a "fall first, then rise" pattern. At the beginning of the week, the market will digest the negative impact of the non-farm payroll data, testing the support level of 4600-4550; the trend in the second half of the week will depend on the CPI data—if the data is weak, gold prices may return above 4700; if the data is strong, gold prices may retest 4550. Which logic will dominate the opening: the negative impact of the non-farm payroll data or geopolitical risk aversion? No one can predict. But what we can do is: don't guess, don't gamble, don't wait—but wait for the market to open, let the market preemptively react, and then react accordingly. If you don't want to passively suffer losses in volatile markets, feel free to follow me. I can monitor the market for you; you're responsible for executing the operations. See you when the market opens.