By: Tita ValderamaImage from RapplerWith two years to go before the 2028 presidential sweepstakes and the ground stirring under eager hoofs, Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte remains the woman to beat despite facing a second wave of impeachment efforts – which will take all of her cunning to survive – and despite persistent criticism of her leadership competence, unresolved corruption allegations and the controversies surrounding the Duterte political dynasty.The forces of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr have had their expectations rudely dashed of perpetuating the dynasty via the candidacy of now-disgraced former House Speaker [and Marcos first cousin] Martin Romueldez, laid low by the biggest political scandal in decades over profiting from ghost infrastructure projects. They have yet to rebound into pre-electoral action with a new candidate. The names frequently mentioned in political circles include Interior Secretary Jonvic Remulla, a member of the Cavite state warlord clan who has made a name for himself as interior secretary by focusing internal police reforms, a not-wholly-innocent crusade given that the Duterte family’s political base rests in the national police.For ordinary Filipinos, watching two of the country’s most powerful political families trade accusations of corruption and abuse of power raises a basic question: Who exactly is looking out for the public interest? Two possible so-called third force candidates have yet to mesh. The powerful old political families (the Arroyos, Aquino-Cojuangcos, the Lopezes and others) have yet to be heard from, along with the newer ones (the Villars, the Binays and others).Philippine politics rarely rewards complacency, however, and the forces that once propelled Sara Duterte to power may now become the very obstacles that could derail her path to the Malacañang Palace. The political alliance that dominated the 2022 election — the UniTeam between Duterte, 47, and Marcos, 68 – has long since fractured into a bitter rivalry. What was once presented as a grand coalition of North – the Marcos stronghold of Ilocos Norte and the Dutertes South in Davao – turned almost immediately into a proxy war between the Marcos and Duterte camps. They are no longer fighting the “Yellows” or the “Pinks,” shorthand labels for reform-oriented voters associated with accountability and good governance. Instead, they are battering each other.Part of Duterte’s continued strength lies in the enduring appeal of the take-no-prisoners political brand built by the dynastic paterfamilias, former president Rodrigo Duterte, 81, now detained on crimes against humanity charges in connection to the 6,000 extrajudicial killings – estimated by human rights groups as high as 30, 000 – under his administration’s brutal drug war. Despite that, for millions of Filipinos, the elder Duterte represented a leader who spoke their language, rejected the polish of traditional elites and promised swift action against crime and disorder.Sara, who on the stump often resorts to her father’s rough-and-rowdy rhetoric, represents the continuation of that same “tough love” style of leadership. Even the shock of her father’s detention by the International Criminal Court in March 2025 hasn’t significantly weakened the Duterte base. If anything, among loyalists, it has reinforced the narrative that the family is being persecuted by powerful enemies.Yet political loyalty has limits. Being a frontrunner in 2026 is very different from winning in 2028. The most immediate threat comes from the halls of Congress, where the House of Representatives has begun investigating the vice president over questions involving her use of confidential funds in the Office of the Vice President and the Department of Education, and her threats to kill the president during a past-midnight 2025 press conference. Duterte has dismissed the proceedings as political theater.But the stakes are enormous. If the impeachment process advances and results in a conviction in the Senate, she could be barred from holding public office, effectively ending any presidential bid before it begins – with the common wisdom that the impeachment proceedings are underway for exactly that reason. Even if she survives impeachment, the prolonged spectacle of congressional investigations risks eroding the perception of invincibility that has long surrounded the Duterte name.“The second round of impeachment tells you Marcos has the levers well in hand and moderates any bogeyman aspects of the Duterte coalition,” said a longtime political maven. “It’s not as scary as it ought to be. You could go down the list of people who led the first impeachment, many of whom were personally targeted by Sara [in 2025 midterm elections] but many of whom survived – to impeach her again.”The vice president has refused to participate in what has been impolitely described as a dog and pony show, questioning jurisdiction and constitutionality. Lawyers allied with her have petitioned the Supreme Court to stop the House justice committee from producing her bank records and calling witnesses to testify on her alleged unexplained wealth and ties with POGOs, or overseas gaming operations, which became an international scandal during her father’s reign, implicating top members of his regime.Third force?The escalating Marcos–Duterte feud has also opened space for a possible “third force” candidate. What the 2022 race won by Marcos revealed was the third force as it is, the pink and yellow survivors, who themselves are their own cult of personality, lack resources but are fairly cohesive. But they matter only in tipping the scale one way or another in the Marcos-Sara fight. Marcos is cultivating them amid the irony that he has become more of an upholder of the post-senior Marcos democratic order than the non-Marcoses.This wouldn’t necessarily mean a traditional opposition figure. Rather, it could emerge as a middle ground for voters weary of dynastic rivalries and political drama. One name frequently mentioned is Senator Raffy Tulfo, 66, whose popularity stems from his long-running public service media programs where he directly intervenes in disputes involving ordinary citizens. He is a scion of the influential Tulfo TV5 broadcasting family, having parlayed his relationship into the nickname “Idol Raffy,” focusing on protecting the poor, the plight of overseas workers and labor rights, chairing committees on Migrant Workers and Public Services, often using his popular “Raffy Tulfo in Action” platform.Tulfo ran as an independent and finished third in the 2022 election. He has said he wouldn’t seek the presidency or vice presidency in 2028, opting instead to pursue reelection to the Senate, although that may be political camouflage. His appeal overlaps with Duterte’s populist base, but without the baggage of a deeply entrenched political dynasty, although his family has started building its own with two brothers in the Senate and three other relatives in the House.Another possible contender is Senator Risa Hontiveros, a one-time award-winning broadcast journalist for IBC and GMA Network. who has emerged as a prominent voice of the principled opposition. Through indefatigable high-profile Senate investigations into offshore gambling hubs and government irregularities, she has cultivated a reputation for accountability and policy-driven governance. She is feisty, abrasive, a prominent voice in the opposition who is frequently targeted by supporters of the previous and current administrations, with accusations ranging from being a “hypocrite” to unsubstantiated links to communist groups.Former vice president Leni Robredo, now mayor of Naga City in the Bicol Region, has declined repeated calls to run again for president after her heavy loss to Marcos in 2022. Some backers are eyeing a Duterte-Robredo match, but she insists it’s too early to discuss the 2028 race and says such talk would distract from her duties to local constituents. Still, allies in the Liberal Party haven’t given up on persuading her, pointing to a recent interview in which she said she would go “wherever the road takes me.”The disinformation battlefieldHovering over all of this is the powerful influence of disinformation. Philippine elections are increasingly fought on social media as much as in campaign rallies. Digital networks of influencers, partisan pages, and coordinated messaging operations shape public perceptions long before formal campaigning begins. In both 2016 and 2022, online narratives, with legions of paid online trolls, proved capable of reshaping political reputations and rewriting historical memory.By 2028, the battle may not simply be over who has the best platform, but who controls the most powerful digital megaphone.What could bring Duterte down?Despite her current advantage in early surveys, several factors – if impeachment doesn’t -- could undermine Sara Duterte’s dominance. First is accountability. If the impeachment proceedings gather credible evidence that resonates with voters, the damage could be lasting even without a conviction. Second is economic reality. Elections are often decided not by ideology but by the price of rice, electricity, and fuel. If economic conditions worsen, voters may be more willing to consider alternatives. Third is political fragmentation. If the Marcos and Duterte camps continue to attack each other, they may inadvertently create an opening for a candidate who can present themselves as a stabilizing alternative.Beyond political dynastiesUltimately, the 2028 election should not be reduced to a contest between rival families seeking to retain power. The real question is whether any candidate can convincingly address the everyday struggles facing ordinary Filipinos — rising prices, job insecurity, and national sovereignty. The colorful posters and campaign jingles will come soon enough. But the decision voters must make is far more serious. Is the next president fighting for the country, or simply fighting for survival within the endless drama of Philippine politics? The answer will determine the future direction of the republic.