EUR/USD Analysis Geopolitics and Energy Drive VolatilityEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDXAU_CAPITALEUR/USD is caught in a volatile recovery phase as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran-US standoff, drive oil above $100, creating stagflationary risks for the Eurozone. While the Federal Reserve stays cautious with a hawkish bias, the European Central Bank raises 2026 inflation forecasts to 2.6%, limiting hopes for near-term rate cuts. The market is currently in a liquidity-seeking cycle, retracing toward the 1.1450 zone to trigger stop-loss clusters and gather momentum. A potential easing of Middle East tensions could relieve energy pressures, setting the stage for a push toward the 1.1680 supply zone. EUR/USD remains in a transitional shake-out, where short-term weakness may be the precursor to a broader upward move.