#202614 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures Micro-DAX FuturesEUREX:FDXS1!priceactiontdsGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Max bearish. Wednesday + Thursday likely was a short squeeze and I think we will see a giant leg down next week. Iran basically said “fck off” to the US and more US troops arriving in the middle east. If this is still a bear trend, the daily 20ema is one of the best spots to look to sell the rips. If I am wrong and markets continue upwards until the real escalation, yeah well, C could go up to 24500. I just cannot see it. Most likely any print above 23600 on Monday/Tuesday would mean I’m wrong. current market cycle: monthly tf bull trend in jeopardy - bulls need to keep the trend line alive. daily close below 22000 is confirmation of the end and we will be in a bear trend and also in most likely a bigger trading range from the 2020 lows to 25k ath key levels for next week: 21000 - 23600 bull case: Bulls got their bounce/short squeeze. They want to go sideways and make bears doubt the new bear trend. Any print above this weeks high 23600 could make more bears cover and wait. I can not see that happening without any hopeful news about a ceasefire or negotiations. Invalidation is below 23200 bear case: My line in the sand for bears is 23600. Above means they are weak and bulls could squeeze more. Below 23200 we could see bears taking over again. On Thursday they let a nasty reversal happen but so far kept it below the breakout price of around 23400. If they can keep this a lower high, bulls can not hold long in hopes of more upside because the downside potential is gigantic. Below 22800 I expect a huge acceleration down to 22000 and if the news become bad enough, we will break the bull trend line from 2022 and go for 21000 and most likely the 2025 April lows afterwards. Invalidation is above 23600 short term: I can not, for the life of me, seeing the bulls buying this on Monday. I was wrong about this before and markets squeezed higher on worse news though. So my base plan is waiting for confirmation by the bears getting below 23200 and not wanting to see a print above 23600. Otherwise I am as bearish as can be, unless Oil goes down in a straight line below 100 and stays there. Something would be up then. I expect more escalation and more war. medium-long term - update 2026-04-04: The headlines will dictate the direction. My base case is the world is completely fckd with Oil this high and 20+% Oil production not being delivered. We could see dax 20000 over the next days/weeks and ultimately even a print below 19000. If we get there, buy with both hands and then some more. I expect big bulls beginning to scale in close to 20000 and they would add on the way lower.