#202614 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq eminiMicro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index FuturesCME_MINI:MNQ1!priceactiontdsGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Same as dax. Markets squeezed the shorts last week but the weekend news can only mean risk-off. I can be wrong about this, I have been before. The ability for markets to rally into bad news is always something to behold. I do think selling the daily 20ema in this bear market is the much better trade. Can wait for bear strength on Monday/Tuesday. The upside is, if we have any, very limited. The downside potential is 20-40%. current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart - bear trend on the daily chart key levels for next week: 22800 - 24800 bull case: I made my case for the bulls in the comment and in the dax section. I won’t repeat myself here. There is nothing for them until the US strikes a deal with Iran. Invalidation is below 22800 bear case: If the US starts the bombing right after futures open, as they now have confirmed multiple times, we will see a giant W3 down. My W3 guess is below 22000 but could be as deep as 21000ish. If you think the current gas prices are bad, you haven’t seen sht. I expect them to rise another 30-100% over the next weeks. Just think about 3x gas prices 2025-04 to 2026-04. Do you think the economy can take it? What 2023/2024 was the goldilocks zone in terms of inflation and growth/broader economy, this is hell. Inflation going straight up while labor markets weaken. That’s called demand destruction. Markets are not prepared. Invalidation is above 24400/24600 short term: Yes I can be wrong and more short squeezing but if I’m right, we will get either a black Monday or Tuesday. If I’m right big time, we will have both. I am 100% certain that right now somewhere people in meetings go “if they start the bombing Monday night, sell it all”. medium-long term - Update from 2026-04-05: Bear trend target, if the war continues is below 20000. Lowest I can see it going, if we get a deep recession, is 18000 - 19000. W3 could take us to 20000-21000 next. Big bois will begin scaling in around 20000, you can bet the house on it but you shouldn’t. If things turn real bad, this could go on for many months, maybe until US mid-terms.