Is the S&P 500 Headed for a Correction Ahead of the Midterm Elections? Here's What History Says Will Happen Before November, and What Comes Next.

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The ongoing conflict in Iran is only the latest factor to affect the stock market. It's exacerbating stubborn inflation, while many remain worried about how the jobs market will hold up and whether tariffs are actually here to stay or not.In other words, there's a lot riding on the midterm elections in November -- and that might include your portfolio.Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »While we came close to a full-on correction in the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) in the first quarter, the benchmark index narrowly avoided officially falling 10% from its high. The Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) both dipped their toes into correction territory before quickly bouncing back higher. But investors aren't out of the woods yet. Here's what's happened to the S&P 500 in previous midterm election years, and what history says happens once a new Congress starts its session.The U.S. Capitol building. Image source: Getty Images.Midterm elections can have a very meaningful effect on markets. Congress is responsible for drafting and adopting important legislation that can have far-reaching effects on businesses and investors.But the run-up to a midterm election can be filled with uncertainty, and investors dislike uncertainty. Stock prices are based on expectations for the future. The less confidence investors have in their outlooks, the greater the margin of safety they require to reduce the risk of being wrong about a company or the economic environment. So, it makes sense that many investors might shift from riskier assets like stocks to less risky assets like bonds or cash ahead of an election.The analysts at Neuberger Berman took a look at the S&P 500's performance over the last 72 years of midterm elections, excluding years when the U.S. was already in a recession. It found that the median peak-to-trough decline in those years was 15%. Three of the last four midterm election years resulted in corrections, including 2022, when the index fell into a bear market.Importantly, the analysts found that all midterm market troughs occurred before the elections. That means if history repeats itself, investors won't have to wait around very long to see the market reach its bottom (if it hasn't already). But what comes next could be even more important for investors.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoTrending tickersBTC-USD Bitcoin USD 66,960.34 -192.61 (-0.29%)ETH-USD Ethereum USD 2,040.86 -11.16 (-0.54%)XRP-USD XRP USD 1.30 -0.01 (-0.98%)SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. 2.4600 +0.0600 (+2.50%)SOL-USD Solana USD 79.89 -0.30 (-0.38%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersAAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. 103.91 +17.56 (+20.34%)SBAC SBA Communications Corporation 204.04 +32.48 (+18.93%)YSS York Space Systems, Inc. 28.03 +4.43 (+18.77%)VSAT Viasat, Inc. 53.69 +8.46 (+18.70%)LUNR Intuitive Machines, Inc. 23.99 +3.75 (+18.53%)Top losersKNF Knife River Corporation 73.91 -8.20 (-9.99%)WIX Wix.com Ltd. 81.95 -8.55 (-9.45%)PBH Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. 52.48 -5.20 (-9.02%)ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. 34.92 -3.36 (-8.78%)RGC Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited 30.80 -2.92 (-8.66%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 177.39 +1.64 (+0.93%)INTC Intel Corporation 50.38 +2.35 (+4.89%)NOK Nokia Oyj 8.82 +0.55 (+6.65%)PLUG Plug Power Inc. 2.4100 +0.1600 (+7.11%)TSLA Tesla, Inc. 360.59 -20.67 (-5.42%)Top economic eventsEarnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings events