WHEATUSD LONG — ALMA Avg Strategy | WR 68%WheatOANDA:WHEATUSDGoldfinch_songNew long leg from ALMA Avg Strategy: counter-trend averaging while ALMA phase is SHORT and the short session is stretched versus its average (pyramids while the condition holds). Exits are rule-based — ALMA flips LONG with a long session long enough versus average — not a fixed take-profit ladder. Default hard stop in the script: 10% from working average (unless the chart instance overrides inputs). On the strategy table, State SHORT with Cur Short elevated and Cur Long at zero is the internal short series; a fresh long arrow on the chart is the entry side of that same rule set — the two can disagree for a bar or two. What actually screams ALMA board: 15m and 1H LONG; 4H through 1W SHORT. On 4H the short run S=6 versus SAvg≈3.1 — short persistence roughly twice its norm (counter-trend fuel in the script’s language). Weekly short S=4 versus SAvg≈4.2 — stretched but not an outlier like 4H. EMA / session grid (export, outliers only) 15m–4H: price Below the printed EMA stack; Cur S on 15m (10 vs Avg S 6.5) and 1H (16 vs 6.7) — intraday short runs are grossly fat versus their averages, Cur L=0 there. 1D–1W: Above the stack. On 1D, Cur L=51 versus Avg L≈6.1 — daily “long” session length is an extreme multiple of its norm; that is not a mild dip tag — it flags persistent trade above slower averages on the higher timeframe while micro structure is still printing heavy short-side bar counts. Read as tension: micro short crowding / chop under a higher-timeframe lift. SMC — current and recent 4H: Price ~5.866; inside a bull FVG; the active bar logs FVG New Bear, FVG Raid Bear, and FVG Enter Bull in one print — messy two-way tape inside the gap. Recent ladder: FVG Enter Bull steps through ~5.87–5.88, OB New Bear / MS BOS ~5.882, older FVG Raid Bull ~5.932 — overhead from the late-March handle matters. 1D: In FVG Bull; a chain of FVG Enter Bull and FVG Raid Bull events from roughly 5.84 → 6.03 into early April — structure-friendly for dip engagement if acceptance holds. 1W: In OB Bear (Breaker); breaker timeline stepping through ~6.10 → 6.07 → 6.00 → 5.90 → 5.93 — weekly supply framing still overhead. 1D line alert (same log): Fractal Low Formed, Fractal Low Broken, New HTF Bull FVG — liquidity / reversal vocabulary around the lows, not a guarantee of trend. Bull case 4H ALMA short run ~2× its average while LTF ALMA is already LONG; intraday Cur S spikes on 15m/1H; daily/weekly price Above slower EMAs with a bull FVG on the daily snapshot and an HTF bull FVG print after fractal-low language — fits the script’s counter-trend long machinery and a relief leg into short persistence. Bear case Weekly breaker bear overhead; 4H bar shows bear FVG creation and raid alongside bull FVG — easy to fail if acceptance breaks down. EMA export: daily long run length is enormous versus average — late-cycle / mean-revert risk into any macro softs shock. Strategy performance on the attached long-window backtest: high win rate but very large max equity drawdown and profit factor near parity — the edge is thin and the path is ugly; averaging into a sustained slide has hurt before.