Axios reveals 45-day ceasefire deal in play, will it happen before Trump’s Tuesday deadline?

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A potential 45-day ceasefire is being discussed between the United States, Iran, and several regional mediators, just hours before Donald Trump‘s deadline, which he has (once again) extended, this time to Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET. The next two days are critical, as these last-minute efforts are the only chance to avoid a major escalation that could include large strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure and retaliatory attacks on energy and water facilities across Gulf states. BREAKING: The US, Iran and mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire. US media, citing sources, say it may be the only chance to avoid 'dangerous escalation.' pic.twitter.com/4KC0ObgPsI— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) April 6, 2026 Trump confirmed on Sunday that the U.S. is “in deep negotiations” with Iran. He told Axios, “There is a good chance, but if they don’t make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there.” Two sources said an operational plan for a large U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran’s energy facilities is already prepared, but Trump’s deadline extension was meant to allow time for a diplomatic solution. Diplomatic efforts are happening through Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators, as well as direct text messages between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Mediators are discussing a two-phase deal where the first phase would be a 45-day ceasefire, followed by a second phase focused on a full and permanent agreement. Iran’s key demands and bargaining chips The biggest issues in any final deal are the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a clear resolution for Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, either by removing it from the country or diluting it. Mediators believe these can only be fully settled as part of a final comprehensive agreement. For now, they are working on smaller confidence-building measures Iran could take on both issues. These are Iran’s main bargaining chips, and Iranian officials are not willing to give them up fully for just a 45-day ceasefire. They are pushing to see if Iran might take partial steps on both issues during the first phase. They are also working on guarantees the Trump administration could offer Iran, making sure any ceasefire would not simply fall apart later. Iranian officials have made it clear they do not want to end up in a “Gaza or Lebanon situation,” where a ceasefire exists on paper but the U.S. and Israel can still strike at will. The White House has declined to comment on the talks. Despite urgent warnings from mediators that the next 48 hours are Iran’s last chance to reach a deal, Iranian officials are publicly holding a very hard line. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy stated on Sunday that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will “never return” to its pre-war state, especially for the U.S. and Israel. A source with direct knowledge of the talks expressed serious concern that Iranian retaliation to a U.S.-Israeli strike on its energy infrastructure would be devastating for oil and water facilities in Gulf countries. This diplomatic scramble follows more than a month of active conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally passes, has been significantly blocked by Iran, pushing global oil prices up sharply. Trump first set a series of deadlines in March, threatening on March 21 to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants within 48 hours if the strait was not “FULLY OPEN. BREAKING​Iran has stated that the Strait of Hormuz "will be opened only after the damages caused by attacks against Iran are compensated with a portion of the revenue generated through a new transit status." pic.twitter.com/79bX7oucLU— GBX (@GBX_Press) April 5, 2026 He delayed that deadline twice before the current one, which was recently extended by 20 hours to Tuesday. Trump has also drawn attention for his controversial statements at an Easter lunch event, where he appeared to contradict his long-held free speech positions. He also posted on Truth Social: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F—in’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.” Iran dismissed these warnings as “helpless, nervous and stupid.” General Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi stated that “the gates of hell will open” for the U.S. leader. Iran’s presidential spokesman Mahdi Tabatabaei said the Strait of Hormuz “will be reopened” only when “a portion of transit tolls is used to compensate for all the damage caused” by the war. Meanwhile, the conflict has already caused significant damage on both sides. Israel struck a petrochemical facility in Iran on Saturday and the Qasem Soleimani international airport on Sunday. A residential building in Haifa, Israel was hit by a ballistic missile, injuring four people. Fires broke out at a petrochemical facility in Abu Dhabi from Iranian missile debris, and Kuwait and Bahrain both suffered damage to oil and industrial facilities from Iranian drone strikes.