BNP Paribas warns stakes 'couldn't be higher' for Tesla stock investors

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Analysts at BNP Paribas are sounding the alarm, saying 2026 will be a make-or-break year for the electric vehicle maker.Tesla reported first-quarter production of 408,386 vehicles and deliveries of 358,023, well short of analyst expectations of 370,000 and its internal consensus estimate of 365,000.It wasn't all bad news: deliveries actually improved 6% year over year, but the increase is somewhat skewed since 2025's Q1 total was 13% lower than 2024's. So the company's comps were favorable.Tesla's stock fell 5.4% Thursday, bringing its 2026 decline to more than 20% so far.Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 341,893 of the deliveries, while the "other models," like the Model S and Model X (which will officially end production forever later this year) and the Cybertruck, accounted for the remaining 16,000+ deliveries.But while Musk criticizes the state of California on Twitter, and makes juvenile jokes about rockets, analysts at BNP Paribas have serious concerns about the company, saying its switch away from the Model S and Model X towards Optimus robots and Cybercabs better work, because Tesla's future may be at stake.2026 has been a rollercoaster for Tesla so far. Photo by Newsday LLC on Getty Images · Photo by Newsday LLC on Getty ImagesEarlier this year, Tesla announced it was pulling the plug on the Model S and Model X and would replace that production capacity with Optimus humanoid robots as part of the company's plan to build 1 million of them per year.That plan may worry investors, since there is currently no discernible market for humanoid robots, and selling 10,000 of them in a year would be impressive. But the vehicle models the company is getting rid of haven't sold either, so that it may be a wash in the end.However, analysts at BNP Paribas aren't taking this Tesla experiment lightly because the company is also spending a lot of money to make it happen."Given Tesla's sizable cash burn this year ($7 billion estimate by BNPP) and indications for massive multi-year investments on the horizon tied to a TeraFab and 100 GW solar capacity, the 'stakes' of TSLA's demonstrated robotaxi and Optimus progress could not be higher," analysts said in a note Thursday.According to BNP, the other models that combined delivered 16,000 vehicles in the quarter benefited from demand that was artificially inflated, so once again, moving off of them makes sense. However, Musk has made some pretty big promises about what Optimus and Robotaxi can do, and the firm says it's time for Tesla to put up or shut up in 2026.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoTrending tickersBTC-USD Bitcoin USD 66,855.46 -106.98 (-0.16%)ETH-USD Ethereum USD 2,037.64 -14.89 (-0.73%)XRP-USD XRP USD 1.30 -0.02 (-1.32%)SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. 2.4600 +0.0600 (+2.50%)SOL-USD Solana USD 79.65 -0.53 (-0.67%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersAAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. 103.91 +17.56 (+20.34%)SBAC SBA Communications Corporation 204.04 +32.48 (+18.93%)YSS York Space Systems, Inc. 28.03 +4.43 (+18.77%)VSAT Viasat, Inc. 53.69 +8.46 (+18.70%)LUNR Intuitive Machines, Inc. 23.99 +3.75 (+18.53%)Top losersKNF Knife River Corporation 73.91 -8.20 (-9.99%)WIX Wix.com Ltd. 81.95 -8.55 (-9.45%)PBH Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. 52.48 -5.20 (-9.02%)ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. 34.92 -3.36 (-8.78%)RGC Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited 30.80 -2.92 (-8.66%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 177.39 +1.64 (+0.93%)INTC Intel Corporation 50.38 +2.35 (+4.89%)NOK Nokia Oyj 8.82 +0.55 (+6.65%)PLUG Plug Power Inc. 2.4100 +0.1600 (+7.11%)TSLA Tesla, Inc. 360.59 -20.67 (-5.42%)Top economic eventsEarnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings events