NASDAQ 100: Technical Analysis and Trade Idea US100

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NASDAQ 100: Technical Analysis and Trade Idea US100US Tech 100 IndexFUSIONMARKETS:NAS100fxtraderanthonyNAS100 🌍 The macro narrative heading into this week is dominated by a high-stakes collision between resurging inflation fears and shifting Fed expectations 🏦. With the JOLTS data and the highly anticipated CPI report on the horizon, the market is bracing for evidence of whether the recent "creeping" inflation trend is a structural hurdle or a temporary blip. Interestingly, general online sentiment is heavily leaning bearish, as retail communities are fixated on the "double-top" potential and a laggard tech sector that hasn't reclaimed its October highs 📉. This widespread pessimism suggests a potential liquidity hunt—a "shakeout" to the upside—before the real move to the downside can materialize, especially given the geopolitical premium still baked into oil prices. We are seeing a shift in Market Structure on the M15 that looks like a textbook Distribution phase in the making 📈. While the higher timeframes remain in a broader consolidation range, the intraday action has printed a clear Bearish Head-and-Shoulders pattern, complete with a Break of Structure (BoS) and a Change of Character (ChoCh) at the recent lows. Market chatter suggests that traders are desperately trying to "buy the dip" at these levels, but the fact that we are trading under the VWAP from previous highs tells me retail is likely being trapped in a "Return to LCS" (Last Compressed Supply) move 🧹. The auction is currently failing to find buyers above the 24,150 zone, indicating that value is migrating lower. Key Zone: The primary area of interest sits between 24,125 and 24,145 📉. This zone represents a significant confluence of the VWAP and the upper boundary of the current Volume Profile Value Area. According to Auction Market Theory, if price cannot reclaim and hold above this high-volume node, the "Path of Least Resistance" remains toward the lower Value Area boundary. We are currently trading at the low of the weekly range, specifically retesting the 24,037 support floor. I am watching for a 'run on liquidity' to sweep the late sellers I’m seeing across various social forums before a secondary distribution leg begins 🧹. If the market attempts a "Spring" or a fake breakout above the Right Shoulder at 24,150 and quickly rejects it back into the range, it will confirm that the big money is still distributing into retail demand. I’ll be keeping a close eye on the volume profile nodes at 23,950 as the ultimate target for this bearish cycle. My Trade Plan 🎯 Bias: Short / Bearish. I am practicing extreme patience here, waiting for the "retest" phase to confirm that buyers are exhausted. Entry Protocol: I am looking for a bearish retest and rejection of the 24,126 - 24,145 zone (confluence of Right Shoulder and VWAP). The specific trigger will be a bearish engulfing candle or an aggressive volume delta spike to the downside on the 5-minute timeframe, targeting a move back toward the 23,950 liquidity pool.