储百亮, AMY CHANG CHIEN2026年3月24日2023年，台湾士兵在军事演习期间。 Lam Yik Fei for The New York TimesWhile the United States wades deeper into war in the Middle East, Taiwan is in the middle of a political fight over how to counter China’s growing strength. And big choices facing Taiwan rest heavily on the direction taken by its main opposition group, the Nationalist Party, which is increasingly fractured between politicians who lean more toward Washington and a party leader who envisions a new era of harmony with Beijing.美国进一步深陷中东战争之际，台湾正发生一场政治的战斗，争论的核心是如何应对中国日益增强的实力。台湾面临的重大抉择在很大程度上取决于其主要反对党——国民党的走向。该党内部日益分裂：一部分政客更倾向于亲近华盛顿，党主席则设想与北京开启一个和谐的新时代。One likely Nationalist Party contender for the presidency, Lu Shiow-yen, recently completed an 11-day visit to the United States, promoting herself as a solid partner of Washington. By contrast, Cheng Li-wun, the chairwoman of the party, hopes to visit China in the next few months to meet President Xi Jinping, an event that she has said could ease enmity with Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its lost territory.国民党的总统候选人热门人选卢秀燕最近完成了一次为期11天的美国访问，将自己宣传为华盛顿的可靠伙伴。而党主席郑丽文希望在未来几个月访问中国，并会见习近平主席。她表示，此举可能缓解与北京之间的敌意，北京视台湾为其失去的领土。“I also believe that the other side hopes to resolve cross-strait issues peacefully,” she said at a news conference in Taipei on Monday, referring to the government in Beijing. “We hope to expand peaceful exchanges across the Taiwan Strait on this basis, instead of bringing up past grievances every day to settle old scores.”“我也相信对岸也希望透过和平的方式，来处理两岸的问题，”她在周一于台北的记者会上表示，其中对岸指的是北京政府。“我们希望去放大在这样的基础上面，扩大两岸的和平交流，而不是每天拿出我们过去的恩怨情仇来算旧帐。”The Nationalist Party, together with a smaller opposition party, holds the majority in Taiwan’s legislature, giving them the power to approve or block the government’s initiatives, including President Lai Ching-te’s proposal for $40 billion of extra defense funds over eight years, on top of the regular annual spending. The Nationalists are also desperate to win the next presidential election in early 2028 after a decade out of power.国民党连同一个相对小的反对党在台湾立法院占据多数席位，这赋予他们批准或阻挡政府举措的权力，包括赖清德总统提出的未来八年在常规年度支出的基础上再增加400亿美元国防经费的提案。国民党也迫切希望在失去权力十年后赢得2028年初的下一届总统选举。Taiwanese lawmakers will start formal negotiations over Mr. Lai’s military spending plan this week, alongside rival plans from the two opposition parties. Those parties both propose more modest additions to military spending, with the option of later increases to buy U.S. weapons. The Nationalists have proposed an initial sum of about $12 billion for an arms package already approved by the Trump administration.台湾立委本周将开始就赖清德的军费计划进行正式谈判，同时还有来自两个反对党的竞争方案。这些方案都提出较低的军费增额，并保留未来增加以购买美国武器的选项。国民党提议最初拨款约120亿美元，用于特朗普政府已批准的一揽子军售。台中市长卢秀燕，摄于2023年。 Ann Wang/Reuters国民党主席郑丽文，摄于11月。 Lam Yik Fei for The New York TimesLegislators from all of Taiwan’s parties are under pressure from Washington to raise military spending. But accumulated rancor and policy disagreements could slow or even derail a deal, which could dent the Trump administration’s willingness to back Taiwan.来自台湾所有政党的立委都面临华盛顿要求提高军费支出的压力。但积累的怨恨和政策分歧可能减缓甚至破坏协议达成，这会削弱特朗普政府支持台湾的意愿。“A failure to get the budget through would be taken as a sign that Taiwan is simply too politically fractured, and too strategically complacent, to be a full-fledged participant in its own defense,” said Hal Brands, a professor of global affairs at Johns Hopkins University who has been following Taiwan’s defense budget debate. “There’s not much appetite in Trump’s Washington for helping allies and partners of that sort.”“如果预算无法通过，将被视为台湾在政治上过于分裂、在战略上不够进取，无法全面投入于自己的防御，”约翰斯·霍普金斯大学全球事务教授哈尔·布兰兹表示，他一直在关注台湾的国防预算辩论。“特朗普的华盛顿对帮助这类盟友和伙伴缺乏兴趣。”Months of political deadlock in Taiwan have already exposed polarization, including in attitudes toward the United States and China. The tensions are surfacing in the Nationalist Party, also called the Kuomintang or K.M.T., which long promoted itself as the party that can stay on good terms with both Washington and Beijing.台湾数月的政治僵局已暴露了极化现象，包括对美国和中国态度的分歧。这些紧张关系正在国民党内部显现，该党长期自诩为能同时与华盛顿和北京保持良好关系的政党。Centrists see keeping warm ties with Washington as a priority, even while they also want more contact with Beijing. Ms. Lu, the potential presidential contender, sought to underline that message during her visit to the United States, said Dennis Lu-Chung Weng, who advised her on the trip.中间派认为当务之急是保持与华盛顿的亲密关系，尽管他们也希望与北京有更多接触。为卢秀燕此行提供了建议的翁履中表示，这位潜在总统竞争者在访美期间试图强调这一信息。“I think the major signal Mayor Lu tried to send through her visit was that the K.M.T. remains, at its core, a traditionally pro–U. S. party,” said Mr. Weng, who is a professor at Sam Houston State University in Texas.“我认为卢市长通过此次访问试图传达的主要信号是，国民党在核心上仍是传统亲美政党，”现任得州萨姆休斯顿州立大学教授的翁履中说。去年，台湾军方在屏东试射了美国制造的HIMARS火箭系统。Ms. Lu, the mayor of Taiwan’s second-largest city, Taichung, emphasized in Washington that she supported an approach to defense that “should not disappoint our friends in Washington,” Mr. Weng said.他说，作为台湾第二大城市台中的市长，卢秀燕在华盛顿强调，她支持的防务方式“不应让我们在华盛顿的朋友失望”。Ms. Cheng, the party chairwoman, said that she would also help secure Taiwan’s safety by visiting Beijing and meeting Mr. Xi, and then visiting Washington. Ms. Cheng said she also wants good ties with the United States, including through continued arms purchases, and she said that the Nationalist Party was united. But for some experts, Ms. Cheng’s focus on Mr. Xi amounts to keeping the United States at a distance.党主席郑丽文表示，她也将通过访问北京会见习近平、然后访问华盛顿来帮助确保台湾的安全。郑丽文说，她也希望与美国保持良好关系，包括继续采购武器，并称国民党是团结的。但对一些专家而言，郑丽文对习近平的关注相当于与美国保持距离。“There is a clear contrast here between the kind of politician whose first visit would be to the United States, and those who believe it’s more important to engage Beijing first,” said David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, who hosted Ms. Lu for a meeting during her U.S. trip. The contrast, he said, showed “the differences within the party regarding how Taiwan should balance these relationships.”“这里存在鲜明反差：一种政客的首次访问是去美国，而另一种则认为先接触北京更重要，”纽约外交关系协会亚洲研究研究员戴维·萨克斯表示，他在卢秀燕访美期间为她主办了一次会议。他说，这种对比显示了“党内关于台湾如何平衡这些关系的分歧”。Ms. Cheng has argued that her approach to Beijing will attract more voters, especially if she can bring back assurances from a meeting with Mr. Xi. China’s leaders have not confirmed that a meeting is on the cards. Ms. Cheng has not visited Beijing since 2023, when she said she went there as a tourist.郑丽文主张，她与北京打交道的方式将吸引更多选民，特别是如果她能从与习近平的会晤中带回保障。中国领导人尚未确认将安排这样一场会晤。郑丽文自2023年以游客身份访京后未再前往那里。“My hope is that Taiwan can play a pivotal role in fostering peace along the First Island Chain,” Ms. Cheng said, referring to the clusters of islands, including Japan’s, that face China’s eastern coast.“我希望这个第一岛链，台湾能够发挥和平的轴心观、轴心角色，”郑丽文说，其中的第一岛链指的是中国东海岸外的一个包括日本在内的岛屿群。储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者，自台北报道中国和台湾问题，重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。Amy Chang Chien是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，常驻台北，报道台湾和中国新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。