BTC has to make a decision in AprilBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDIncome_StatementThe 4-year cyclists are still at war vs macro tailwind (supercycle) guys. So far, they have won multiple battles, especially the huge one last October. But the 'supercycle' people still have their last stand in April. If BTC starts to recover, and slowly head to new highs, the 'year of the supercycle' meme will come alive. So far, March has been encouraging, with BTC clearly outperforming NASDAQ and even Gold. With every other asset being depressed, the possibility is certainly there, especially with CLARITY act still being actively discussed by the US admin. On the contrary, if the BTC fails to establish itself again, this would mean the final victory for the 4-year cycle natives. Which would mean May to be the heavily down month, and the only sustained recovery being possible near October 2026. BTC is currently trading below its 200-day EMA after a failed attempt to stay above $72,000 in early March. Price is moving within a rectangle formation between support at ~$68,700 and resistance at ~$74,900 on the short-term chart. Both possibilities (breakdown into May, and a huge leg up) are still possible. The best thing is, as traders, we can take both sides. While the market ranging, there's no need to take outsized risks, but as soon as the ranging stops, and BTC decides to act, the move is always quite violent. That's where we take a trade. Macro catalysts for April: why it will be big! New Federal Reserve chair following Jerome Powell. Markets are waiting for clarity. Nobody is pricing in possibility of new cuts before Autumn. If they are hinted at, BTC and risk assets move first. Renewed U.S. tariff tensions have prompted defensive positioning in the BTC options market, with demand for downside protection elevated. If the tensions are resolved, BTC moves. The Iran war can't continue. No side can sustain prolonged conflict. April should be the month of rapid de-escalation, despite both sides claiming victory and the will to continue. STRC being a huge ponzi. Saylor is buying billions of BTC again, with STRC staying near $100 even post dividends. This is a huge positive for BTC prize, but can Saylor do it on his own? He seems to have propped up price in March quite well, and if the April delivers as well, this alone can break the 4-year cycle. Key Indicators to Watch BTC responds exceptionally well to MAs. As long as one is broken, it likes to move to the next one. For shoter-term setups (lasting hours to days), the 20-day MA and 50-day MA are ones to watch. While for investing, the 200-day MA and 365-day MA are my favourites. So far, they rmains rising and supportive, a clear sign of potential bottoming. The RSI is currently at ~52, sitting in neutral territory, which keeps both scenarios open, which is what makes it exciting. My Long Setup (new breakout) A break through the $72,000-$74,000 resistance level could trigger BTC's strongest momentum of 2026, with 10-15% growth, at least. Price should retest the $80,000 area, where multiple CME gaps still stand. This is where technical and fundamental forces can align very strongly. Trigger: Daily close above $73,000-$74,000 with volume confirmation TP1: $78,000-$80,000, TP2: $85,000-$86,000 (200-day EMA region). TP2 is quite aggressive, and this is clearly BTC 'overshooting' the mark, peak short-term euphoria. This move can be triggered by STRC success + new Clarity act developments, if they line up around April 15-17. Otherwise, TP1 is clearly a better target. Stop Loss: $72,500 (tight momentum invalidation) R:R: ~1:3 My Short / Hedge Setup (total breakdown) A breakdown below $67,500 may trigger a deeper correction toward the $63,000 zone. Watch STRC volumes, as well as the Iran developments. Trigger: Daily close below $67,500 with rising volume TP1: $63,000, TP2: $59,500 Stop Loss: $71,500 R:R: ~1:2