Bitcoin: Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term PromiseBitcoinCRYPTO:BTCUSDKrisadaYoonaisilThe Investment Theme Outlook for 2026 (Ep.10/12) Bitcoin: Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Promise This series consists of 12 research notes covering 12 instruments. Each episode blends fundamental and technical analysis to frame a structured set of investment themes for 2026. This is Episode 10, focusing on the 2026 outlook for the Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) and its key drivers throughout the year. Fundamental Analysis 1. At present, Bitcoin is behaving more like a risk asset than a full-fledged safe haven. As a result, when markets grow concerned that the Fed may become more hawkish and liquidity could be withdrawn, Bitcoin tends to come under pressure. Meanwhile, recent factors such as high energy prices and interest rate expectations continue to weigh on overall market sentiment. 2. This suggests that, in the short term, Bitcoin is still unlikely to recover quickly and may face further downside from risk-off sentiment. Higher real yields and tighter financial conditions also reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin. When liquidity is tight, Bitcoin rallies are often followed by sharp selloffs. 3. That said, there are still positive longer-term factors in place, particularly on the regulatory and institutional adoption fronts. Under its new chair, the SEC has introduced a more supportive approach toward crypto and blockchain-based trading, which is a positive signal for the long-term market structure. 4. In addition, at least 61 publicly listed companies that are not directly involved in digital asset businesses have already adopted a Bitcoin treasury strategy. If more companies begin holding BTC as a reserve asset, this could help absorb circulating supply and support the view of Bitcoin as a form of alternative reserve asset. 5. Looking ahead, the probability of future economic and financial crises remains relatively high. Bitcoin’s image as an asset outside the state-controlled monetary system could benefit if global concerns over money and the financial system continue to rise. For example, if investors become increasingly worried about high debt levels, monetary policy, or systemic financial risks, an asset with fixed supply and no dependence on any single government may become more attractive. 6. In summary, the long-term supportive pillars for Bitcoin are still in place: scarcity, institutional access, regulatory clarity, and corporate adoption. However, these factors can only fully play out if global liquidity does not become excessively tight. Although Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to interest rates, liquidity, and regulation, these long-term tailwinds are still being overshadowed in the short term by concerns over the economy and interest rates. Technical Analysis 7. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a corrective wave within a broader downtrend. If analyzed through Elliott Wave, Bitcoin may complete this downward leg in the 40,000–50,000 area, corresponding to the 61.8%–78.6% Fibonacci Retracement zone, which is also close to the projected target from a Rectangular Flag pattern. The market may find its low from around June 2026 onward, and prices could begin to bottom out from 3Q2026, based on the historical tendency for downtrends to last roughly one year from the peak. 8. If the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement at 57,000, it may decline further toward 40,000, near the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement. 9. However, if Bitcoin can hold above 57,000, it may continue to move sideways within the 65,000–80,000 range. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness