GBPUSD. Wide flat 1.325 - 1.345GBP/USDOANDA:GBPUSDCoinRangerNote I suspect that until Trump announces the end of the easing (i.e., about the end of the week, unless he changes his mind), the pound may rise nervously, but still. Therefore, a breakout from the flat upwards is possible. Any hint of a settlement means the pound will rise, while counter-rhetoric will push it down. Until the pound decides on its direction, I would refrain from trading. Technical Analysis: 1️⃣СCI - around 0. Possible downward movement 2️⃣RSI - around 50. Possible downward movement 3️⃣Levels: 🔸161.8% Fibonacci retracement from the first wave on h1 (1.34744) + 1 extension (1.34538) - defines the upper boundary of the flat 4️⃣Larger TF (h4) - downward rebound from the 200 level on h4 5️⃣Price movement forecast - on the chart. Entry, stop, take profit: 🔸None yet. The 78.6% Fibonacci (1.33047), high volume 1 (1.34309), high volume 2 (1.32728), and volume block (1.33743 - 1.33119) can determine small moves, but this is a subtle play on the M15/M5 timeframes. Fundamentals 1️⃣ Rate differential: BoE 3.75% vs Fed 3.50-3.75% → ⚪ Neutral. The gap is literally zero. 2️⃣ DXY ~99.4 → 🔴 Negative for the pound. The dollar is at highs. 3️⃣ 2Y spread (US-UK): -0.73% → 🟢 Positive for the pound. UK 2Y 4.67% > US 2Y 3.94%. For the first time, UK bond yields are higher, attracting capital. But interest rates aren't rising due to a healthy economy. 4️⃣ 10Y Spread (US-UK): ~-0.68% → 🟢 Positive for the pound (with a caveat). US 10Y 4.39% vs UK 10Y ~5.065%. Formally in favor of the GBP, but such yields are dangerous for the UK budget. 5️⃣ UK PMI: Flash March composite - 48.2 (forecast 53.0, February 51.5) → 🔴 Strong negative for the pound. Economic activity has begun to shrink - the parameter is below 50. 6️⃣ UK Economics: GDP 0.1%, unemployment 5.2%, borrowing £14.3 billion → 🔴 Negative for the pound. Weak growth and labor market, record borrowing. 7️⃣ COT trader positioning: extreme selling is still there, growing for the 4th week in a row → 🔴 Negative for the pound ⚠️ Risk of a short squeeze remains. The trend is down, but any positive change will send the pound soaring. 8️⃣ Retail Sentiment: 65% long / 35% short → ⚪ Neutral. Small traders are buying, a reversal usually begins at >70%. 9️⃣ Oil ~$99-$101 → 🔴 Downside for the pound. Britain is buying expensive oil. Interestingly, that the BoE fears a CPI of 3-3.5%. Then the bank will be trapped: inflation will prevent it from cutting rates, and a weak economy will prevent it from raising them. 🔟Iran → 🔴 Downside for the euro. The most important factor. Trump has postponed the strikes for 5 days (until Friday). Iran is publicly rejecting negotiations. The dollar and oil are putting pressure on the pound. Conclusion: 👈🏻 Overall, we're falling in the medium term. PMI 48.2 means the economy is done. Rising oil prices are tying the BoE's hands. Decent growth is only possible if the situation with Iran improves.