Energy Crisis: Brent as a Barometer of Geopolitical TensionICE Brent Crude Oil CFD (May 2026)ACTIVTRADES:BRENTK2026ActivTrades Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Brent continues to be the barometer of global tension today. Since the beginning of the year, it reached an intraday all-time high of $119.44 following the outbreak of hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Yesterday, after Donald Trump announced on social media alleged talks with Iran for a ceasefire, crude reached $114.30 before plummeting to $96.02. Today, with Iran officially refusing to negotiate and the threat of attacks on Ukraine, Brent opened above $100, consolidating a critical level for energy markets. The geopolitical impact is immediate. On March 23, Trump stated that there were “important points of agreement” in the negotiations, suggesting that a solution could be near and postponing military strikes on Iranian facilities. However, Iran denied any progress or constructive contact, labeling the announcements as unfounded, which increases uncertainty over the conflict’s evolution. Brent Technical Analysis (Ticker AT: Brent) Since February 26, Brent has shown a clear uptrend, breaking the long-term downtrend that had persisted since the 2022 highs, when it reached $138.09 per barrel. The current dynamics reflect the direct influence of the geopolitical conflict: a bullish moving average crossover has formed, with widening between averages highlighting the extreme volatility characterizing the market these days. Key support sits at $96.02, while the current price hovers around $102, with moderate volume, indicating that buying strength is not yet decisive. The correction observed in the Asian market appears to have found a technical floor, tested for the second time this month. Technical indicators show mixed signals: the RSI is at 62.66%, indicating slight overbought conditions, while the MACD remains clearly bullish, suggesting the trend could continue if a resistance breakout is confirmed. The POC (Point of Control) remains far below, around $64, distorting the price distribution into a “four-peak bell,” with additional support zones at $85 (100-day moving average) and $71 (200-day moving average). Currently, the critical range lies between the $119.44 high and the $96.02 support. A strong breach of $114.30 could lead to a retest of recent highs, while a pullback to support could trigger a temporary correction toward $85 (100-day MA breaking the 50-day MA). However, in a context of high systemic risk, any significant drop would be unexpected and reflect market nervousness amid geopolitical uncertainty. Market and Macro Perspective Markets are reacting with high volatility. Yesterday, the STOXX Europe 600 fluctuated between -2.25% and +2.29%, while the S&P 500 closed up 1.15%. In Asia-Pacific, rebounds were limited after sharp declines, reflecting caution amid contradictory news. From a macro perspective, March PMIs show the initial impact of the conflict: India and Japan reported figures below expectations. Europe and the U.S. will continue releasing PMI data and crude inventory changes this week, which could confirm whether geopolitical tension continues to support Brent prices. Brent does not only measure energy today; it measures global tension, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical risk. As Iran and the United States maintain contradictory stances, markets will continue reacting to every statement and rumor about the conflict. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.