Tyson Foods ($TSN) — Watching for a shift, not guessing a bottomTyson Foods, Inc. Class ABATS:TSNAlchemyMarketsRight now TSN sits in a clear downtrend, and while price is approaching a key area of interest, the trade here is not about trying to catch a falling knife — it’s about identifying when the underlying drivers start to shift. 1. Fundamentals — What’s been the problem TSN has been under pressure mainly due to weakness in its beef segment, where margins have been squeezed by elevated input costs, particularly live cattle. The market is currently pricing in: •Persistently high cattle costs •Weak beef margins •Limited near-term recovery So the narrative is still: margins remain under pressure → earnings stay weak → stock stays heavy This is important because for the stock to move higher, this narrative doesn’t need to turn bullish — it just needs to become less bearish than expected. 2. Price Action — Where we are now From a technical perspective: •TSN is trading inside a clear downward channel •Price is now approaching the lower bound of that channel •Also sitting near a key anchored VWAP level This is typically where you start to see: •selling pressure slow •early signs of stabilisation •potential for a bounce But on its own, this means nothing. Price is not a signal — it’s a reaction. So the question is: what would actually cause price to reverse from here? 3. The Driver We’re Watching — Cattle + Protein Demand The key driver here is live cattle prices. If cattle: •stop rising •stabilise •or begin to roll over → input cost pressure eases → beef margins become less bad → earnings expectations can start to shift That’s the real trigger. At the same time, we’re also watching lean hogs as a proxy for broader protein demand. If hog prices are: •stabilising or rising → suggests demand for protein is holding → reduces downside risk to pricing → supports the idea that beef weakness may be overestimated