War Could Soon Force Oil Prices To Catch Up with the Massive Supply Loss

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fuel, banning exports, and paying hefty premiums for any crude that could replace the sour Middle Eastern grades that are trapped by the de facto closed Strait of Hormuz. Oil traders and speculators – those who haven’t fled yet the extremely volatile crude futures trade these days – seem to be hanging on to every word of U.S. President Donald Trump. But his messaging has been chaotic, with threats of obliteration, proposals of peace plans, and insistence that the U.S. is negotiating with Iran.The market has reacted to all these with violent swings up or down. Between Monday and Wednesday, prices slumped by 10% amid market hopes that some negotiations are indeed taking place and could yield results.Speculation vs FundamentalsHowever, the reality looks quite different from what the crude futures market is projecting.Physical supply, of the magnitude of millions of barrels per day, is being curtailed in the Middle East as producers are forced to reduce output because oil has no way out of the region. Shortages are already hitting Asia and will soon spread to Europe, too.But the paper market looks complacent, probably also because the supply crunch will be last felt in the United States. The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, has widened the discount to the international benchmark, Brent Crude, to more than $10 per barrel—a gap not seen in years. Currently, Asian refiners do not need most of the U.S. crude as they cannot efficiently process the light sweet oil from the shale fields. Asia wants sour barrels of the type it has been importing from the Middle East for decades.Related: 3 Defense Stocks To Replenish America’s Depleting ArsenalAs a result, WTI may keep trading at huge discounts while Brent and Middle Eastern benchmarks are set to climb higher. The longer the Strait of Hormuz blockage persists, the more severe the upward pressure on the Brent and Middle Eastern crude prices will be.“You’ve seen Asia absolutely fighting for every barrel there is in the world,”Amrita Sen, founder of consulting firm Energy Aspects, told The Wall Street Journal.If the Strait of Hormuz remains shut for a few more weeks, the price of Brent Crude will eventually catch up with the surge in physical crude from the Middle East, according to the analyst.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoTrending tickersBTC-USD Bitcoin USD 66,190.47 -2,352.31 (-3.43%)^GSPC S&P 500 6,368.85 -108.31 (-1.67%)^IXIC NASDAQ Composite 20,948.36 -459.72 (-2.15%)^DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average 45,166.64 -793.47 (-1.73%)ARTL Artelo Biosciences, Inc. 10.54 +7.35 (+230.41%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersAGX Argan, Inc. 566.62 +155.77 (+37.91%)U Unity Software Inc. 19.45 +2.32 (+13.54%)ADV Advantage Solutions Inc. 25.57 +2.99 (+13.27%)ADMA ADMA Biologics, Inc. 9.25 +0.96 (+11.58%)MEOH Methanex Corporation 65.22 +5.76 (+9.69%)Top losersFLY Firefly Aerospace Inc. 23.71 -3.11 (-11.58%)YOU Clear Secure, Inc. 47.44 -5.96 (-11.16%)ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. 78.67 -9.19 (-10.46%)HNGE Hinge Health, Inc. 36.25 -3.93 (-9.78%)ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp. 14.55 -1.53 (-9.51%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 167.52 -3.72 (-2.17%)GRAB Grab Holdings Limited 3.5700 -0.1400 (-3.77%)TSLA Tesla, Inc. 361.83 -10.28 (-2.76%)INTC Intel Corporation 43.13 -0.97 (-2.20%)NU Nu Holdings Ltd. 13.60 -0.42 (-3.00%)Top economic eventsEarnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings events