SILVER W16† IDEA

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SILVER W16† IDEASilverOANDA:XAGUSDtommyjose92This upcoming week is Holy Week with the commemoration the final days of Lord Jesus Christ’s earthly life, passion, death, and resurrection. The markets will be closed due to Good Friday, which may bring lower volume to some instruments as silver. Fundamentals: On the fundamental side, there is also the NFP report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. NY. The markets may wait for the release to show increased action on Monday after next week. The COT report of this week shows commercials holding shorts (-16k) as well as micro gold (-17k) and non reportables long (+17k), which are generally at the wrong side of the market. Price of oil still surged this week back to the 102.00 price for WTI crude oil, putting pressure and higher costs on miners and therefore on future supply of silver. The DXY ended this week strong at 100.00 as well as US10Y at 4.42 and USDCNY at 6.91 with the three putting downside pressure on silver price as being a non-yielding asset and China being a major purchaser of the metal and the dollar getting more expensive. Technicals: Price showed rejection on Wednesday of a movement up, rejecting a critical pivot point at 74.50 level that would have signaled a change of direction to the bullish side on 4h. On the Daily chart, this rejection was represented by a bearish Pin bar that was confirmed in Thursday. Besides this, the price did not advance on Friday and closed the week with a bulish doji that is supported by the daily rejection on Monday to the previous yearly low at the 64.50 level. Is important to note that althought this rejection of the 60.00 mark took place on Monday with the highest daily volume of the week, we also had the lowest close of the year. This signals for my sideways action that may last at least one week longer, specially with Holy Week, Good Friday and NFP reports next Friday. Summary: I consider next week will hold lower volume, I would expect a weekly bearish timid close with low volume and therefore no action from my side. Key levels to watch: 75 for the upside and 65 for the downside.