Even as the US continues to wage a war of its own making against Iran — one fought alongside Israel — President Donald Trump has already signalled his readiness to start another, closer to home.“I do believe I’ll be having the honour of taking Cuba,” Trump told reporters on March 16. “Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it — I think I could do anything I want with it, if you want to know the truth.” He doubled down on this statement on Friday (March 27), saying, “Cuba is next… But pretend I didn’t say that. Pretend I didn’t.”Since the US captured and deposed former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro in January, it has ceased all Venezuelan oil supplies to Cuba, threatening tariffs against the latter’s remaining trading partners, including Mexico. This was solidified by an executive order that Trump signed in January, claiming that Cuba posed a national emergency to the US. Here is what to know.What is happening in Cuba now? Liagny Acosta holds her 2-week-old baby, Airan, who is hospitalized for a respiratory illness at the Hospital William Soler in Havana on March 22, 2026. (The New York Times)Cuba’s electricity grid suffered a second blackout last weekend, even as the US continues its blockade of oil and fuel to the country. This marked the second blackout within a week, and the third in a month. Earlier this month, 64% of the island was plunged into darkness and saw 20-hour-long power outages.While the present situation can be credited to the economic blockade imposed by the US and the virtual stoppage of oil imports from Venezuela, Cuba’s energy grid has not been maintained properly either. William LeoGrande, an academic expert on Cuba, told NPR that Cuba’s infrastructure is “way past its normal useful life.”Cuba has gone three months without supplies of fuel oil, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), gasoline or aviation fuel, the Vice Minister of Energy and Mines Argelio Abad Vigo said this week. Cuba’s Deputy Foreign Minister has described Washington’s policy as “energy asphyxiation.”Cuba’s strained relations with the USCuba has historically had a strained relationship with the United States, dating back to the Cold War era. In 1959, revolutionaries led by Fidel Castro seized control of Havana, overthrew Fulgencio Batista’s US-backed government, nationalised American-owned properties and aligned itself with the Soviet Union.Story continues below this ad Fidel Castro is interviewed in Cubanacan, west of Havana, July 8, 1964.(NYT File)The US responded with sweeping economic sanctions, strict travel restrictions, and the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961. The latter pushed Castro closer to the Soviet Union and its leader, Nikita Khrushchev. Subsequent US administrations bolstered the American sanctions and trade embargo, with US President Ronald Reagan designating Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism in 1982. As a result, the Cuban GDP declined by 35% between 1989 and 1993.Also Read | Cuba without the Castros: What it means and what the road ahead looks likeAfter decades of hostility, a period of normalisation was realised under President Barack Obama, who eased the travel restrictions, permitted remittances, and restored diplomatic ties – including the reopening of embassies – in 2015. This also meant the removal of Cuba’s terrorism sponsor designation.However, Trump’s first term reversed most of this, restoring the sanctions, limiting Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba and redesignating Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism. In his second term, he has gone further, reversing Biden-era normalisation initiatives, and introducing fresh sanctions on Cuba’s tourism industry, which contributed 10% of GDP before the Covid pandemic.Since 2020, Cuba has been in an economic recession — its GDP reportedly contracted 2–3%, and inflation stood at 24% in 2024.Story continues below this adThe attack on VenezuelaCuba’s dependence on Venezuela for oil stemmed from a medical workers-for-oil deal between the two nations in 2000. Through the Petrocaribe alliance, Venezuela supplied Cuba with about 98,000 barrels per day (bpd) in exchange for tens of thousands of Cuban military, education and medical professionals annually. This proved profitable for Cuba as it generated more income from its service exports than its goods exports (rum, cigars). Further, Havana could also resell the surplus oil on international markets for hard cash.This relationship first took a hit in 2016 when Venezuela’s economy collapsed and began to decline. Oil exports to Cuba fell 40% within the first half of 2016, causing it to reduce domestic power supply by 25%.Also in Explained | With Maduro’s capture, Trump uses ‘war on drugs’ to effect regime change in VenezuelaThe capture of Maduro on January 3 — during which at least 32 Cuban nationals who served in his security detail were killed — and a fresh executive action on January 29 proved to be the final straw. At least 10 million people in Cuba have been thrown into a deep humanitarian crisis, according to a TIME report. The frequent blackouts have caused Cuba’s hospitals to suspend operations and schools to close. The fuel shortage has inevitably driven up the prices of other items, including food, and has significantly devalued the Cuban peso. Cuba’s GDP is projected to decline further by 7.2% in 2026.Economic pressure, with a backdoor for business interestsAhead of a possible attack on Cuba, the Trump administration has made it clear that its efforts seek to disengage the Cuban government, not private individuals. In February, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control announced it would favourably consider licence applications for Venezuelan-origin oil destined for Cuba’s private sector, thus excluding the Cuban military and government.Story continues below this adThis fits a pattern favoured by the US president: orchestrating the collapse of state machinery, while exerting control over the resources entering the country’s undeveloped private sector, making it dependent on the US again.Last month, a deputy of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro, the former Cuban president, for discussions about Cuba’s future. Washington’s goal, The New York Times reported, is “regime compliance rather than regime change”.For the 10 million Cubans already in a humanitarian crisis, the distinction may matter little.