Ceasefire speculation between the US and Iran has become more complex, with uncertainty over Israel’s support and Iran pushing for a broader agreement, even as a detailed 15-point proposal is reportedly already in play.Summary:Oil remains headline-driven as ceasefire speculation evolves.NYT reports uncertainty over whether Israel supports the proposal.Iran signalled it wants a comprehensive ceasefire, not a temporary pause.US is said to have delivered a 15-point plan via Pakistan.Conflicting signals suggest negotiations remain fragile and complexOil markets remained sensitive to fast-moving geopolitical headlines as fresh reporting added both momentum and uncertainty to ceasefire speculation between the United States and Iran.Initial reports suggested a potential one-month ceasefire could be announced under a framework being developed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with a broader 15-point agreement to be negotiated during that pause. However, subsequent updates have complicated that narrative and highlighted the fragile nature of the talks.According to The New York Times, it remains unclear whether Israel is aligned with or supportive of the proposed ceasefire framework. That uncertainty is critical for markets, given Israel’s central role in the conflict and its operational posture. Any lack of alignment among key parties reduces the likelihood of a smooth or immediate de-escalation, keeping a degree of geopolitical risk embedded in oil prices.At the same time, Iran appears to be pushing for a broader outcome. In discussions with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Iranian officials indicated support for a “comprehensive ceasefire” rather than a limited one-month pause. This stance suggests Tehran may be seeking a more durable and wide-ranging agreement, potentially complicating efforts to secure a quick, interim truce.Further detail on the diplomatic process emerged in reports that the United States has already transmitted a proposed 15-point plan to Iran. The proposal was reportedly delivered via Pakistan, whose army chief has emerged as a key intermediary between Washington and Tehran. This adds another layer to the negotiation dynamics, underscoring the indirect and multi-channel nature of the talks.The substance of the reported framework remains extensive. It includes dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities, halting enrichment, transferring enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency, and decommissioning key facilities such as Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. Iran would commit to never pursuing nuclear weapons, grant full IAEA access, and abandon its proxy-based regional strategy, including halting the funding and arming of militias.The proposal also addresses energy market concerns directly, with provisions to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. In return, Iran would receive sanctions relief, including the lifting of existing restrictions and the removal of snapback risks, alongside support for a civilian nuclear program centred on Bushehr. Ballistic missile discussions would be deferred, though any retained capability would be limited to defensive purposes.For markets, the mixed signals matter. While ceasefire headlines have periodically pressured oil lower by trimming near-term supply risk, the lack of clarity around Israel’s position and Iran’s push for a broader deal highlight the difficulty of reaching agreement. As a result, crude is likely to remain highly reactive to incremental developments, with any sustained downside dependent on concrete confirmation and alignment across all major parties. Don't hold your breath waiting for agreement on a complex 15 point plan. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.