EUR/GBP Daily Outlook: Rebound Building from Demand

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EUR/GBP Daily Outlook: Rebound Building from DemandEUR/GBPOANDA:EURGBPEdgeTradingJourneyOn EUR/GBP, my short-term view is constructive, but still balanced on the broader daily structure. Price has reacted cleanly from the 0.8610–0.8640 demand and is now pushing higher, forming higher lows. As long as this area holds, I see room toward 0.8745/0.8760. However, I do not consider this a full trend reversal yet, as a strong supply zone sits above at 0.8780–0.8800, extending toward 0.8823, where sellers could re-enter. From a COT perspective, the picture is mixed. Euro positioning remains slightly net long but is losing momentum, with longs being reduced. Sterling is still net short overall, but recent data shows short covering and some rebuilding in longs. This shift suggests GBP is becoming less bearish at the margin, which limits bullish conviction on EUR/GBP, especially into resistance. Seasonality has supported EUR/GBP throughout March, with most datasets pointing higher. This aligns with the current rebound, but being at month-end, I treat it as a secondary factor rather than a trigger. Retail sentiment is neutral, with a 50/50 split, offering no real edge. I rely more on structure and institutional positioning here. Overall, EUR/GBP can continue higher while holding above 0.8638, targeting 0.8745/0.8760, and potentially testing 0.8780–0.8800. That zone will be the key decision point. Rejection there keeps the market in a range; a clean break would shift the structure more bullish. My bias remains neutral to mildly bullish in the short term: upside is possible, but not yet a high-conviction breakout scenario.