BITCOIN The bad part hasn't even started based on the USD??BitcoinCRYPTO:BTCUSDTradingShotThis is no secret. We all know it. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) tends to rise when the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY, black trend-line) is cheap and drops when it rises. No rocket science here, their negative (inverse) correlation is natural as BTC is valued in USD. Based on this, what this chart shows though that the Dollar is about to start a new multi-year rally while Bitcoin has already been within its new Bear Cycle since October 2025. Technically the USD bottomed in June 2025 and started forming a prolonged Support base so the lag it technically natural. This has happened during almost every Cycle, BTC didn't start its Bear Cycle exactly when DXY bottomed and started rising as it's not 'ceteris paribus', other market dynamics play their role too. But the value of the USD has indeed the most important effect macro-wise. So now that we've determined that this can happen, what's next? Panic? Not exactly. First, the 2011 Bear Cycle has shown that BTC can bottom even though the DXY keeps rising. 2014 has shown that DXY can accelerate rallying aggressively but BTC can continue to a 'normal' Bear Cycle bottom without collapse. 2018/19 has shown quite similar results, when DXY kept rising but much less aggressively even though BTC had already started a new Bull Cycle. The real problem is the 2022 period. BTC bottomed almost exactly when DXY peaked and started correcting violently. But of course this was a very special situation as the Inflation Crisis of that period drove global markets down violently as the aggressive money supply increase (printing) to recover from the COVID lockdowns inflated prices. Coupled with the Ukraine - Russia war that dealt a hit to the economies through historic energy price spikes, we got that situation: The Dollar has to peak and correct aggressively in order for BTC to bottom. So is this time similar to 2022 (Iran war = projected inflation but of course no massive money printing before as during COVID) or to the three Bear Cycles before? Statistically the latter. And that implies that the most probable outcome is for the DXY to continue rising, while Bitcoin extends its Bear Cycle but on a slower pace until the eventual bottom in Q4 2026. But what's your opinion about it? Is the USD new rally very bad news for BTC or not? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇