by T.D. Thornton-Last Saturday's news that the No. 1-ranked Paladin (Gun Runner) will miss the GI Kentucky Derby with a non-displaced condylar fracture of his right front ankle created a vacancy atop this list. Any set of Derby rankings abhors a vacuum, but it wasn't easy deciding which of several worthy candidates out of the GI Florida Derby and GI Arkansas Derby would take over the kingpin slot. 1) COMMANDMENT (c, Into Mischief-Sippican Harbor, by Orb) O-Wathnan Racing; B-Lee Pokoik (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $485,000 RNA Wlg '23 FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA Ylg '24 FTSAUG; $500,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,017,339. Last start: WON Mar. 28 GI Florida Derby.Commandment's chief asset honed during his current four-race win streak is his consistent ability to make his own breaks and deliver powerful performances even when he doesn't get the best of trips or is operating from a tactical disadvantage.Trainer Brad Cox has described this son of Into Mischief ($485,000 RNA FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA FTSAUG; $500,000 KEESEP) as a “big, sturdy horse.” That brawn is backed by a no-nonsense, get-the-job-done mentality.When winning his seven-furlong maiden, the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes, and the 1 1/16-miles GII Fountain of Youth Stakes, Commandment settled into a comfortable rhythm, had no qualms about being covered up in traffic, and keenly split horses without hesitation when asked.In Commandment's rally-from-last win by a nose in the nine-furlong Florida Derby, he took the overland route, closing into a moderate pace under Flavien Prat, who executed an impeccably timed, length-of-stretch mow-down.One weekend of nine-furlong preps remains, but I'm pretty sure the quality of competition in the Florida Derby will end up standing out as the deepest and most talented field we'll see in of any of the Triple Crown preps this season.Commandment, The Puma (Essential Quality) and 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Chief Wallabee (Constitution) all finished within half a length of one another, and each overcame less-than-ideal trips to be involved in the three-way photo, with the top two co-earning 100 Beyer Speed Figures.You could make a cogent case for any of those three wearing a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May. 2) RENEGADE (c, Into Mischief-Spice Is Nice, by Curlin) O-Robert Low, Lawana L. Low, and Repole Stable; B-Robert Low & Lawana Low (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $975,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-2-1, $1,031,500. Last start: WON Mar. 28 GI Arkansas Derby.While Commandment is straightforward and dependable, Renegade brings flash and panache.This $975,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief is at his best when dropping back, circling the field and unleashing a visually arresting closing kick to blow away the competition. That's what he did when breaking his maiden in the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes (93 Beyer), and again in last Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby (98 Beyer).On both occasions, this Todd Pletcher trainee let loose with an afterburner gear in the late stages that he probably didn't need because he was well clear. But it was an enviable attribute for him to showcase, because that deft turn of foot could turn out to be a pretty handy resource going 10 furlongs.Put another way, Renegade is not a lumbering style of closer. He accelerates more eye-catchingly than any other Derby aspirant this season.In the Davis, Renegade's final sixteenth was clocked in 5.97 seconds. In 18 points-awarding Derby preps at 1 1/16 miles this season, no other race has yielded a final sixteenth under six seconds.In the Arkansas Derby, Renegade covered a final furlong in 11.84 seconds. No nine-furlong Derby qualifying prep in at least the last four years has produced a sub-12-seconds final furlong.Renegade | Coady Media3) EMERGING MARKET (c, Candy Ride {Arg}-Wild Empress, by Empire Maker) ”TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O-Klaravich Stables, Inc.; B-Stoneriggs Farm (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $185,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $618,880. Last start: WON Mar. 21 GII Louisiana Derby.Emerging Market will play the “rising phenom” role in Derby 152.In just a two-start racing career spanning six weeks, this Chad Brown-trained Candy Ride (Arg) colt has gone from bulling his way to victory in a Tampa maiden route debut (97 Beyer) to blasting home in front by a head after a prolonged stretch slugfest in the 1 3/16-miles GII Louisiana Derby (90 Beyer).Too much too soon? Maybe.Up against the grain of convention in that only one horse in history (Leonatus in 1883) has ever won the Kentucky Derby off of just two lifetime starts? Definitely.But by stalking, targeting and reeling in pacemakers with a relentless swagger, Emerging Market ($185,000 KEESEP) has carried himself with a level of gravitas and discipline that supersedes his limited experience.In the Louisiana Derby, Emerging Market drew the outermost nine post as the 2-1 favorite.He broke with the leaders and was responsive to Flavien Prat's efforts to settle into a mid-pack stalking spot. He advanced in hand down the backside, brushed with an inside rival, and briefly got in tight on the heels of the horse in front of him entering the far turn, then shot to the front with a four-wide bid that put him over the top at the quarter pole.The 21-1 leader, Pavlovian (Pavel), re-seized the lead, and the two sparred between the three-sixteenths and sixteenth poles before Emerging Market edged away nearing the wire before galloping out with purpose. 4) CHIEF WALLABEE (c, Constitution-A La Lucie, by Medaglia d'Oro) 'TDN Rising Star presented by Hagyard'. O/B-Mike Ball & Katherine Ball (KY); T-William I. Mott. Lifetime record: GSP, 3-1-1-1, $216,600. Last start: 3rd Mar. 28 GI Florida Derby.After the wire in the Florida Derby, Commandment and Chief Wallabee, the one-three finishers, galloped out in tandem with good energy, open lengths ahead of runner-up The Puma.Their peel-off from the pack mirrored the impression the two made in the race itself, where both fought on after overcoming in-race adversity. Neither appeared to be have scraped bottom, stamina-wise.This homebred son of Constitution from Bill Mott's stable was making just his third lifetime start after breaking his maiden over seven furlongs and then finishing a game second behind Commandment in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at 1 1/16 miles.Chief Wallabee was covered up behind the top two through the first turn of the Florida Derby, then by the half-mile pole got stuck in that inside position with no way out, surrounded by horses and “on hold” for an entire furlong.Junior Alvarado swung Chief Wallabee wide off the final turn and put him within striking distance, but Alvarado had to practically bend this colt in half to get him outside and off the heels of both The Puma and favored Nearly (Not This Time) in upper stretch.Chief Wallabee didn't immediately regain a good rhythm, but when he sensed Commandment charging hard to his outside at the sixteenth pole, he dug back in with belated but noticeable interest.“As well as he was traveling on the bridle, when [Alvarado] released him, he thought he would probably quicken a little more,” said Mott. “But, you know, it's only his third race, and they've got to learn to do that. He's getting more experience, and it wasn't a bad race.” 5) THE PUMA (c, Essential Quality-Eve of War, by Declaration of War) O-OGMA Investments LLC, JR Ranch and High Step Racing LLC; B-Hidden Brook Farm & Brian Kahn (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $95,000 RNA Ylg '24 KEESEP; $150,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime record: GSW, 4-1-2-1, $442,280. Last start: 2nd Mar. 28 GI Florida Derby.This son of Essential Quality ($95,000 RNA KEESEP; $150,000 OBSAPR) is carving out a reputation as a hard-trying overachiever who keeps outrunning his odds.If you like The Puma in Louisville going 10 furlongs, you'll be rewarded with a double-digit price, somewhere around the fifth or sixth choice in the wagering.That's not a bad mutuel on a colt who had his nose in front one head bob before the wire and one bob after it in the Florida Derby.This Gustavo Delgado trainee was a three-quarter-length winner when four wide on both turns at 7-1 in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby.Off at the same price in six-horse Florida Derby (and, like Commandment, disadvantaged by trying to close into a moderate pace), he again toured the track four deep before accosting 7-5 favorite Nearly at the quarter pole.The Puma polished off Nearly, then immediately had to brace for the two-pronged challenge of Commandment and Chief Wallabee.Although The Puma seemed to intimidate Chief Wallabee from ranging up to his direct outside, Commandment was farther out in the clear when he hooked The Puma and out-nosed him at the wire.No one is going to say The Puma has ducked the division's heavy hitters. In four lifetime starts, he has sparred with four current members of the top six on this list: Commandment, Renegade, Chief Wallabee (twice), and Further Ado. 6) FURTHER ADO (c, Gun Runner-Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa) 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O-Spendthrift Farm LLC; B-John C. Oxley (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $275,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP; $550,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime record: GSW, 5-2-1-1, $390,703. Last start: 2nd Mar. 7 GIII Tampa Bay Derby.I'm eyeballing Further Ado as a potential “wiseguy” play for the Derby.His 87-Beyer second in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby doesn't exactly leap off the past-performance page. But considering that The Puma came back to run a huge race in the Florida Derby, and that Further Ado was the only contender in the Tampa Derby to force the issue up front then stick around at the finish, that's a much better-than-it-looks try coming off a 3 ½-month layoff.This Brad Cox trainee by Gun Runner ($275,000 KEESEP; $550,000 OBSAPR) is expected to be entered Tuesday for Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes.His five-start résumé includes an 82-Beyer win in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Nov. 29, in which Further Ado stalked from fourth, advanced on the far turn, then gained control in a prolonged stretch tussle before kicking clear through the final 50 yards.Further Ado also sports a 20-length, maiden-breaking win at Keeneland Oct. 10 that earned a whopping 98 Beyer. But when young horses win by such gaudy, open-length margins, it's often the result of some aberration, and those big-number blowouts tend to saddle prospects with outsized expectations. 7) IRON HONOR (c, Nyquist-Orenica, by Blame) O-St. Elias Stable, William H. Lawrence and Glassman Racing; B-Mike Freeny and Pat Freeny; T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $230,000 Ylg '24 KEEJAN; $475,000 Ylg KEESEP. Lifetime record GSW, 2-2-0-0, $211,750. Last start: WON Feb. 28 GIII Gotham Stakes.Iron Honor, a May 1 foal by Nyquist making just his third career start, drew post 13 for Saturday's GII Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct.This will be the final Wood Memorial contested around two turns. The new Belmont Park will be the year-round downstate home of New York racing when it opens in September, and that means all future nine-furlong stakes that offer qualifying points to the Derby (starting with the GII Remsen Stakes in December and the April 2027 Wood) will be run around one turn on Belmont's 1 ½-miles main track.Iron Honor is 2-for-2 at Aqueduct. He won a Dec. 13 six-furlong maiden sprint there by 1 ½ lengths (95 Beyer), out of which the second, third and fifth-place finishers have since come back to win their next starts.In the Feb. 28 GIII Gotham Stakes, Iron Honor pressured the pacemaker and wrested control in the final sixteenth of that one-turn mile for a 90-Beyer win by one length.Unless the far outside post scares bettors away, this Chad Brown trainee ($230,000 KEEJAN; $475,000 KEESEP) will be well backed in the Wood.If so, Iron Honor will be trying to reverse a recent dry spell for favorites in that stakes: The public's choice has won just one edition of the Wood in the past 11 years (Tacitus at 5-2 in 2019).Iron Honor | Sarah Andrew8) REAGAN'S HONOR (c, 3, Honor A. P.-Rutile, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-West Point Thoroughbreds, David Ingordo & Gabriel Duignan; B-David Ingordo & Jerome S Moss (KY); T-Cherie DeVaux. Sales history: $140,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime record: 3-2-0-0, $72,300. Last start: WON Feb. 19 Fair Grounds ALW.We have to go all the way down to No. 8 on this list before we get to a true front-running threat. No matter how talented the above-ranked closers, stalkers and pace-pressers are, sharp, sustainable gate speed is always an advantage in a 20-horse race like the Derby.Horses who raced either on the front end or just off it crossed the finish wire first in every Derby between 2014 and 2021. Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 were off-the-pace winners. In 2024, Mystik Dan won with an inside stalking trip. In 2025, Sovereignty rallied to win from 17th on the backstretch.Despite the recent shift in winning profiles, the legacy of the Derby remains littered with well-meant, overbet closers who might have been the “best horse” had they not encountered trouble going into Churchill's chaotic first turn or been blocked or forced wide turning for home.Considering that, I'm always on the hunt for Derby horses who show that they have enough speed to be pressing the issue in the first flight, if not leading the pack.Reagan's Honor. a medium-framed colt by Honor A.P., fits the bill. He's an expected entrant for Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.This speed-centric Cherie DeVaux trainee earned a berth into the Top 12 with a 6 3/4-length, 96-Beyer, first-level allowance wiring over older horses Feb. 19 at Fair Grounds.Reagan's Honor ($140,000 KEESEP) was hand-ridden by Jose Ortiz to the top of the long Fair Grounds straight, put under some light hustling in upper stretch, and was kept to task with occasional stick work while widening his winning margin.He came home with a last half-furlong timed in :6.28 for a final 1 1/16-miles clocking of 1:42.02, just one hundredth of a second off the track record.Reagan's Honor previously won his maiden at Fair Grounds in start number two back on Jan. 17, wiring a 1 1/16-miles field at 7-1 odds (81 Beyer). 9) CLASS PRESIDENT (c, Uncle Mo-Top Quality, by Quality Road) O-WinStar Farm, LLC, First Go Racing and CHC, Inc.; B-WinStar Farm, LLC (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $593,700. Last start: WON Mar. 1 GII Rebel Stakes.Similar to Reagan's Honor above, the designation of being considered the Derby's most dangerous speed horse is there for the taking for Class President (Uncle Mo) if he gets entered as expected for Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes.He's been pressing the leaders from second or third, but seeing him try to make the lead wouldn't be out of the question if he draws inside at Keeneland.This Todd Pletcher trainee upset the GII Rebel Stakes at 8-1 odds Mar. 1 at Oaklawn in his third lifetime start.Class President pressured the pacemaker, backed off in the middle stages, wrested control of the lead in upper stretch, then fought off a stern late bid from the more seasoned Silent Tactic (Tacitus) to prevail by a nose before galloping out with decent energy (91 Beyer).Five horses have since run back out of the Rebel in two stakes and one allowance race. Three were second, one fifth, the other seventh.Class President broke his maiden in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Dec. 27, then was second, beaten 3 ¾ lengths, when cutting back to seven furlongs in the Swale Stakes there Jan. 31. 10) POTENTE (c, Into Mischief-Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again) O-Speedway Stables LLC; B-Pam & Martin Wygod (KY); T-Bob Baffert, Sales history: $2,400,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $162,000. Last start: WON Mar. 7 GII San Felipe Stakes.Potente, a $2.4 million FTSAUG colt by Into Mischief, looms as the horse to beat in Saturday's seven-horse GI Santa Anita Derby.This Bob Baffert trainee broke his maiden sprinting six furlongs at Santa Anita Jan. 31 when wiring the field at 3-5 odds. The race yielded a 79 Beyer. All four horses that Potente beat have since run back, but only one has hit the board.Let go at 8-1 odds in the Mar. 7 GII San Felipe Stakes over 1 1/16 miles, Potente stalked and pounced with a three-wide bid, digging in the final sixteenth to prevail by a head over 67-1 long shot Robusta (Accelerate). The win was assigned an 89 Beyer. 11) INCREDIBOLT (c, Bolt d'Oro-Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-Deann Baer & Greg Baer DVM (KY); T-Riley Mott. Sales history: $75,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-0, $498,681. Last start: WON Mar. 14 Virginia Derby.Incredibolt, a lean, muscular colt who will hit his third birthdate Apr. 4, will try to parlay a win in the one-turn, nine-furlong Virginia Derby Mar. 14 into a credible try in the 10-fulrong Kentucky Derby May 2.A bet on this This $75,000 KEESEP son of Bolt d'Oro is essentially a wager that trainer Riley Mott can coax another 12 to 15 Beyer points of improvement out of him, building upon that 88-Beyer effort at Colonial Downs.Incredibolt was fourth as the 5-2 beaten favorite in his Ellis Park debut when sprinting six furlongs Aug. 22. Stretched to a one-turn mile Sept. 28 at Churchill and sent off as the 2-1 second choice, he drew the rail, pulled himself up into contention, then settled into a covered-up stalking spot third at the fence. Pushed on for run around the turn, Incredibolt sparked into a headlong drive that had him two lengths clear at the wire.In the GIII Street Sense Stakes four weeks later, Incredibolt was the 4-1 third choice from the outermost seven draw. He gave up four and then three paths of real estate on the turns while trailing about six lengths off the action, then built decent momentum through the far turn before opening up past tiring leaders with no true competition firing at him late. The 1 3/4-length score yielded an 82 Beyer.Incredibolt was sixth and last in a 25 ¼-length puzzler of a defeat in the Jan. 31 GIII Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream.But he rebounded in the Virginia Derby, kicking through at the rail after being bottled up off the turn, expanding his winning margin to four lengths without facing a serious deep-race threat. 12) SILENT TACTIC (c, Tacitus-Magical Sign, by Gun Runner) O-John C. Oxley; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Mark E. Casse. Sales history: $60,000 Ylg '24 FTKOCT; $500,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime record: GSW, 6-2-4-0, $1,051,922. Last start: 2nd Mar. 28 GI Arkansas Derby.Silent Tactic is already a millionaire and has never been worse than second in six career starts, all in races over 1 1/16 miles or longerHe fired with his usual far-turn bid in the Arkansas Derby but was outkicked and outclassed by Renegade.I do get a sense that he has plateaued (four Beyers at Oaklawn this season: 81-88-91-91). But trainer Mark Casse isn't exactly starting from scratch here with a month to go until the first Saturday in May.Consistency counts, and this son of Tacitus ($60,000 FTKOCT; $500,000 OBSAPR) will likely be building late-race momentum when a number of the more lightly seasoned Derby hopefuls are calling it quits in Louisville.Although the only horses to pull off the Arkansas/Kentucky Derby double since 1980 have been American Pharoah (2015), Smarty Jones (2004) and Sunny's Halo (1983), horses who have been the runner-up at Oaklawn during that time frame have also won three Kentucky Derbies, and all were a bit of a surprise: Super Saver (2010), Grindstone (1996) and Lil E. Tee (1992).The post TDN Derby Top 12: Cadence Quickens, Plot Thickens appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.