Volatility Remains Low Against the Backdrop of Falling MarketsVOLATILITY S&P 500TVC:VIXRizeSenpaiIn spite of the recent loss of support in the QQQ and SPY the rise in the VIX remains underwhelming as M1 and M2 Money supply continue to rise. On the surface it seems like the money in the market is fearing the war and selling off as a result but if that were the case you'd think Commercial Banks would stop contributing to the rise in M1/M2 money supply and that downside volatility would be bid up much higher than it currently is but it simply has not done so yet. Additionally assets such as Gold and Silver which would normally rise on Geopolitical tensions such as the War and Supply Shutdowns such as what we are currently experiencing, have actually gone down significantly instead which signals to me that the money isn't behind this decline and isn't willing to bet that the Iranian conflict will have a big longer-term sustained impact on the economy. Given that the drop we've seen in indexes do not align with the activity we've seen in the VIX nor Precious metals, it is likely that the drop in the markets was simply a liquidity event , an event in which the Commercial banks are willing to step up and provide the needed liquidity as made evident by the recent all time highs made in the M2 and acceleration in the lesser talked about M1 Money Supply. The main difference between M1 and M2 money supply is that while both track the supply of money issued by central and commercial banks, the M1 excludes the supply held up in less liquid vehicles such as CDs or Savings Account while the M2 is a broader index that tracks everything. This essentially means M1 is a filter to track the supply of the most liquid money while M2 is an overall view. Given that the big money does not seem to be betting on long term implications of this war as a whole I would suspect Oil to eventually come back down to the $60s to fill it's gap as well as for the VIX to come back down below $20 to fill it's gap and for markets to rise again as the newly issued liquidity makes its way through the system. With that being said BTC probably stands to rise more than the SPX once this happens and is actually holding up far better than the SPX during this time. Easiest thing for me to do here would be to sell slightly OTM weekly Bear Call Spreads against the VIX or even better the 3x VIX ETF UVXY. Using the liquidity potentially gained from being profitable on those, one could then add more calls to BTC or SPX or just use it as a cash cushion.