EUR/USD – Weekly Technical Analysis - Short biasEuro/US DollarFX:EURUSDrehankhanani1️⃣ Market Structure Trend Direction: Transitional → Bearish Bias Emerging Price previously formed a range structure, followed by a bullish leg into ~1.12–1.18, but is now showing loss of bullish continuation. Structure Formation: Earlier: HH + HL (bullish phase) Current: Failure to make higher high + early lower high forming CHOCH (Change of Character): Confirmed on recent rejection from highs (~1.18–1.20 zone) Current move below short-term structure signals early bearish transition BOS: Minor bearish BOS on lower timeframe structure (visible in weekly pullback legs) Not a full macro BOS yet → structure still developing 2️⃣ Trend Strength & Momentum MACD (12,26,9) MACD line crossing downward with histogram turning negative Momentum is clearly decelerating from bullish to bearish No strong bearish expansion yet → early-stage bearish momentum RSI (14) RSI declining toward midline (~45–50 zone) Indicates: Loss of bullish strength Entering bearish continuation territory Stochastic (5,3,3) Stochastic is falling from overbought Clear bearish crossover Momentum shift confirms downside pressure increasing ADX (14) ADX is relatively low / flattening Indicates: Weak trend strength Market transitioning rather than trending strongly 👉 Conclusion: Momentum = Bearish shift but not yet impulsive 3️⃣ Moving Average Alignment Short-term MA (fast) has rolled over downward Mid-term MA flattening Long-term MA still slightly upward / flat MA Structure: Not fully bearish stacked yet Current state = bearish compression Key Insight: Price now trading below short-term MA MAs acting as dynamic resistance near 1.16–1.17 👉 This is typical early bearish phase before expansion 4️⃣ Key Levels Major Resistance 1.1700 → Dynamic MA resistance + prior rejection 1.1850 – 1.2000 → Major supply / liquidity zone Major Support 1.1400 → Immediate structural support 1.1200 → Key weekly demand 1.1000 → Psychological + liquidity pool Liquidity Zones Buy-side liquidity taken above 1.18 highs Sell-side liquidity resting below 1.1400 and 1.1200 Imbalance / Inefficiency Inefficiency visible in prior bullish leg (1.10 → 1.15) Likely to be partially filled during correction Psychological Levels 1.1500 (current pivot) 1.1000 (major magnet) 5️⃣ Probabilities 🔻 Bearish Continuation: 60% CHOCH confirmed Momentum turning bearish Price below short-term MA Liquidity below current price 🔺 Bullish Reversal: 25% Higher timeframe still not fully broken Long-term MA still supportive Requires reclaim of 1.17 ⚖️ Consolidation: 15% ADX low → weak trend strength Possible short-term range before expansion 🎯 Trade Setup (Professional Plan) Primary Setup (High Probability) Direction: SHORT Entry: 1.1620 (pullback into MA resistance zone) Stop Loss: 1.1820 (above major swing high / liquidity) Targets: TP1: 1.1400 TP2: 1.1200 Risk-to-Reward: TP1 ≈ 1:1.5 TP2 ≈ 1:3+ Alternative Setup (Invalidation Scenario) Invalidation Condition: Weekly close above 1.1700 Then: Market shifts back to bullish continuation Alternative Trade: Direction: LONG Entry: 1.1720 breakout SL: 1.1550 TP: 1.1900 ⚠️ Final Verdict 👉 Short bias