EURUSD – Critical Support May Decide the Next Major MoveEuro/US DollarFX:EURUSDfxliquiditylabEURUSD – Critical Support Under Pressure as Geopolitics Weigh on the Short Term 💡EURUSD enters this week at a decisive area on the weekly chart. Despite the recent correction, the pair still remains above the broader base built between late 2024 and early 2025, which prevents a confirmed structural bearish reversal reading for now. At the same time, the failure to sustain the 1.18–1.19 zone weakened momentum and pushed price back into an important mid-range area, right on top of the 1.1430–1.1450 support zone. 🌏On the macro side, the environment remains difficult for the euro. The war is entering its fifth week, oil remains heavily bid, and the market is beginning to split its attention between inflation and slowing growth. This backdrop tends to weigh more on Europe, which is generally more exposed to expensive energy. At the same time, German inflation reaccelerated, reducing room for an excessively dovish ECB. In the U.S., yields are falling on slowdown fears, but the dollar still finds support from defensive flows and the broader risk-off tone. 🔹This creates a complex background for EURUSD. On one hand, elevated oil, prolonged war, and a resilient dollar support short-term downside pressure. On the other hand, lower yields and the possibility of weaker U.S. data prevent a clean one-way bullish dollar narrative. Because of that, the most likely scenario for the next few days is high volatility, headline sensitivity, and false breaks before a clearer directional move develops. 📈Technically, the 1.1430–1.1450 area is the most important tactical support in the short term. This is the region where the market is trying to decide whether the current correction is still just a pause inside a larger constructive structure, or whether bearish acceleration will begin toward deeper support levels. Below that zone, the next relevant levels are 1.1400, then 1.1350, and after that 1.1280–1.1300, which is the key medium-term structural support. 🔹Above current price, the most relevant short-term resistance stands at 1.1550–1.1620. As long as EURUSD remains below that range, the tactical advantage stays with sellers. A consistent daily close above 1.1550 would start to weaken that bearish short-term view and could open room for a stronger rebound toward 1.1620 and possibly 1.1700. Without that recovery, any bounce is still likely to look like technical relief inside a fragile short-term structure. 🔹For this week, the main reading remains volatile sideways action with a bearish tilt. The pair is not in structural collapse, but it has also not shown enough strength yet to resume the broader uptrend with conviction. As long as the market stays below 1.1550, the more prudent approach remains selling rallies rather than aggressively buying support. That becomes even more relevant in a market driven by war, oil, and major macro events such as Powell remarks and U.S. activity and labor data. 🔹In the medium term, however, the structure has not yet been invalidated. As long as the 1.1280–1.1300 region is not lost convincingly on the weekly chart, the current move can still be interpreted as a correction inside a broader constructive formation. In other words, there is tactical weakness now, but there is still no confirmed structural bearish reversal. If EURUSD later manages to reclaim 1.1620 with strength, the market can reopen room toward 1.18–1.19. A clean loss of 1.1280, on the other hand, would change the picture and increase the risk of a deeper correction toward 1.11–1.10. 📌Trading ideas 🟢Short term (this week): Bias: sell rallies near 1.16–1.17, with tight stops above 1.18, targeting the 1.13–1.135 region. Medium term: 🟢As long as price remains above 1.11–1.12, that zone may be considered a possible accumulation area for structural long positions if U.S. activity data comes in weaker and reinforces expectations of future Fed cuts. ⚠️Levels I am watching: Resistance: 1.1550, 1.1620, and 1.1700 Support: 1.1430–1.1450, 1.1400, 1.1350, and 1.1280–1.1300 💡Reading summary: In the short term, EURUSD remains vulnerable and more exposed to downside pressure than ready for a clean bullish continuation. In the medium term, the broader structure has not yet been invalidated, but the current zone is decisive. The reaction at 1.1430–1.1450 and the market’s ability, or inability, to reclaim 1.1550 should define the tone of the coming sessions. ⚠️This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Manage your risk with discipline. If this analysis added value: 👍like the post 💬comment your bias ⭐and follow the profile for more studies on liquidity, structure, and price action. FX Liquidity Lab Understand liquidity. Anticipate the move.