Oil climbs as ceasefire talk clashes with rising US ground-war signals.Earlier:US says two-thirds of Iran’s arms facilities destroyed in ongoing strikesSummary:Oil rising as geopolitical risk premium rebuildsMarket volatility driven by conflicting headlinesUS troop deployments point to possible escalationKharg Island emerging as key strategic targetHandles ~90% of Iran oil exportsTrump continues ceasefire messagingMarket sees potential misdirectionGround operation risk skewing oil outlook higherOil prices are pushing higher again in early trade as markets increasingly price in the risk that the US conflict with Iran may be shifting toward a more escalatory phase, despite continued ceasefire rhetoric from Washington.Recent price action has been highly sensitive to headlines, with crude briefly dropping sharply earlier this week after signals of potential negotiations, only to rebound as fresh reports point to continued military build-up in the region. Behind the volatility, signs are accumulating that the US is preparing for a possible expansion of operations beyond airstrikes. Reports indicate deployments of airborne troops and Marine units into the Middle East, alongside amphibious assets capable of supporting ground operations. A key focal point for markets is Iran’s Kharg Island, the country’s primary oil export hub, handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments. The US has already targeted military infrastructure on the island while deliberately avoiding oil facilities, preserving optionality for future escalation. The combination of troop movements and strategic positioning has fuelled speculation that a ground operation, potentially aimed at seizing or controlling Kharg Island, is becoming a credible scenario. Such a move would represent a major escalation, directly targeting the core of Iran’s oil export capacity.At the same time, President Trump has repeatedly pointed to the possibility of a ceasefire, creating a mixed messaging backdrop for markets. This dual-track approach, signalling de-escalation publicly while continuing to build military capability, is increasingly being interpreted as strategic misdirection rather than a clear shift toward peace.For oil markets, the implications are asymmetric. While ceasefire headlines can trigger sharp short-term pullbacks, the underlying risk profile continues to skew to the upside. Any disruption to Kharg Island or broader escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a significant share of global oil flows, would have immediate and severe supply consequences. As a result, the market is beginning to rebuild a geopolitical risk premium, with traders increasingly focused on not just current supply disruptions, but the growing probability of a more direct US ground involvement in the conflict. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.