MIKHAIL ZYGAR2026年3月26日 Pool photo by Alexander ZemlianichenkoAt the start of the year, the Russian economy looked to be giving way. Under the strain of war and sanctions, revenues were falling, production was shrinking and trade was running low. With rising tariffs, credit was prohibitively expensive and borrowing all but impossible: A wave of bankruptcies was on the horizon. In late January, Russia was forced to sell oil to India at just $22 per barrel, about a third of the market rate. As a symbol of unsustainability, it was hard to beat.今年年初，俄罗斯经济一度濒临崩溃。在战争与制裁的双重压力下，财政收入下滑、生产萎缩、贸易低迷。关税不断上涨的同时，信贷成本高得令人望而却步，借贷渠道几乎完全断绝，破产浪潮一触即发。1月下旬，俄罗斯被迫以每桶仅22美元的价格向印度出售石油，约为市场价的三分之一。这极具象征意义，充分说明经济已难以为继。President Vladimir Putin has heard such complaints throughout the war. Yet, according to those around him, he has chosen largely not to listen. Officials and business leaders, for their part, understood that the continuation of the war was his absolute priority and that the country’s economic situation was of little consequence. But in February something shifted. Mr. Putin began, suddenly, to pay attention to the flagging economy. There were even signs he might be changing his mind on negotiations with Ukraine, perhaps seeking an exit from the conflict.战争期间，普京总统多次听到此类抱怨，但据身边人士透露，他基本选择置之不理。官员与商界领袖也明白，继续战争是他的绝对优先事项，国家经济状况则无足轻重。但到了2月，情况出现转变。普京突然开始关注疲软的经济，甚至有迹象表明，他可能在对乌谈判问题上改变想法，寻求为冲突找到出路。Then came the war in Iran. In one swoop, the conditions for conciliation were overturned. Amid buoyant oil prices, Western division and American overreach, the pressure on Mr. Putin to come to terms ebbed away. By a strange twist of history, the start of the war in Iran halted the prospect of ending the war in Ukraine — at the very moment when Mr. Putin appeared ready to consider it.随后，伊朗战争爆发。一夜之间，谈判和解的条件彻底逆转。油价高涨、西方阵营分裂、美国过度扩张，迫使普京妥协的压力大幅消退。历史上演了离奇转折：就在普京看似准备考虑结束俄乌冲突之际，伊朗战争的爆发却扼杀了这一可能性。In February, Mr. Putin seemed ready to change course and overhaul his negotiating team. Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin’s chief envoy who is widely seen as an insubstantial figure with no real mandate, was reportedly on the verge of dismissal. The leading candidate to replace him was Igor Sechin, the head of the state oil giant Rosneft. Regarded as Mr. Putin’s right-hand man, Mr. Sechin previously oversaw Russia’s relationships with Latin America, as well as the cultivation of close relationships with American oil executives. Here was an indication that Mr. Putin might begin to take talks seriously.2月时，普京似乎准备调整路线，重组谈判团队。据报道，被普遍认为缺乏实权、象征意义大于实际作用的克里姆林宫首席特使基里尔·德米特里耶夫即将被解职。接替他的头号人选是国有石油巨头俄罗斯石油公司总裁伊戈尔·谢钦。作为普京的核心亲信，谢钦曾负责俄罗斯与拉美国家关系，并与美国石油高管建立密切联系。这一信号表明，普京可能开始认真对待谈判。At the same time, rumors began circulating of an imminent large-scale reshuffle of the Russian government. If Mr. Putin were to engage properly in negotiations and pursue peace with Ukraine, he would have to entirely rebuild the structure of power. According to people close to the Kremlin, that could include dismissing the current government. Clouds had already begun to gather over Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin: Individuals close to him have recently become defendants in criminal cases.与此同时，有关俄罗斯政府即将大规模改组的传言开始流传。若普京真想认真谈判、与乌克兰达成和平，就必须彻底重构权力架构。据接近克里姆林宫的人士透露，这可能包括解散现政府。总理米哈伊尔·米舒斯京的处境已岌岌可危：其亲信近期接连成为刑事案件被告。We will never know what might have happened. On Feb. 28, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli attack; in the days that followed, everything changed. Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel and, in a major reversal, the United States lifted sanctions on Russian oil. Demand soared for Russian fertilizer as the world reeled from disruptions to food supply. All of a sudden, the economic problems bedeviling Russia seemed to evaporate.我们永远无法知道事情原本可能的走向。2月28日，阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊在美以联合袭击中身亡；随后几天，局势彻底逆转。油价飙升至每桶100美元以上，美国更是出人意料地解除了对俄罗斯石油的制裁。随着全球因粮食供应中断而动荡，对俄罗斯化肥的需求暴涨。一时间，困扰俄罗斯的经济难题似乎烟消云散。What’s more, divisions deepened between the United States and its NATO allies, who refused to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump called it a “very foolish mistake.” For Mr. Putin, whose foreign policy has been built around cultivating disorder in the West, this was welcome. Equally important is the absorption of America’s attention in the Middle East, pushing Ukraine far from mind. It’s not just attention that is being diverted: The United States is burning through weaponry and ammunition that could otherwise be sent to Ukraine.更重要的是，美国与其北约盟友之间的分歧加剧，欧洲国家拒绝向霍尔木兹海峡派遣军舰。特朗普总统称这是“非常愚蠢的错误”。对于以在西方制造混乱为外交政策核心的普京而言，这无疑是利好消息。同样关键的是，美国注意力被中东牢牢吸引，乌克兰问题被抛诸脑后。被转移的不只是注意力：美国正在大量消耗本可援助乌克兰的武器与弹药。In America, too, the Kremlin spies an advantage. It’s not hard to see how a protracted conflict with Iran could erode Mr. Trump’s political standing and weaken the Republican Party, making the upcoming midterm elections especially precarious. This reinforces Mr. Putin’s conviction about the transience of American politics. Mr. Trump, like any American president, is a temporary figure: A new administration will eventually arrive, potentially with a very different approach to Russia. The war in Iran may hasten that shift. In this view, concessions on Ukraine would be pointless.克里姆林宫同样看到了美国内部的可乘之机。不难预见，与伊朗的长期冲突可能侵蚀特朗普的政治地位，削弱共和党，让即将到来的中期选举充满变数。这进一步强化了普京的判断：美国政治具有高度不稳定性。与历任美国总统一样，特朗普只是过渡性人物，新政府迟早上台，对俄政策可能截然不同。伊朗战争可能加速这一更迭。在这种逻辑下，在乌克兰问题上做出让步毫无意义。These are all considerable boons for the Kremlin. But the money now flooding into Russia is by no means a guarantee that Mr. Putin will be able to continue the war indefinitely. On the contrary, some close to the government believe that the current situation will be short-lived. By May, many in Moscow expect, the war in Iran could be over and sanctions against Russia reinstated. For the troubled Russian economy, there is no permanent salvation.这一切对克里姆林宫而言都是重大利好。但涌入俄罗斯的资金绝不能保证普京能够无限期延续战争。相反，一些接近政府的人士认为，当前局面只不会持续太久。莫斯科许多人预计，到5月，伊朗战争可能结束，对俄制裁或将重新生效。对于陷入困境的俄罗斯经济而言，没有永久的救赎。The situation inside Russia is becoming turbulent, too. Ahead of parliamentary elections this fall, the Kremlin is in a state of near-paranoid anticipation, nervously flip-flopping on plans to stuff Parliament with veterans and dealing harshly with a pro-regime blogger who publicly turned on Mr. Putin. It has moved to block Telegram, the country’s most widely used messaging platform, while internet outages are becoming increasingly frequent in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The rumors of sweeping government reshuffles have not gone away.俄罗斯国内局势也日趋动荡。今年秋季议会选举在即，克里姆林宫陷入近乎偏执的焦虑，在议会安插退伍老兵的计划上反复摇摆，对一名公开反水的亲政权博主严厉打压。当局已着手封锁俄罗斯使用最广泛的即时通讯平台Telegram，莫斯科与圣彼得堡的网络中断事件也愈发频繁。政府大规模改组的传言仍未消散。A level of public discontent that until recently would have been unthinkable is now part of daily life. Before too long, it seems, Mr. Putin will have to make a consequential choice: either agree to some form of de-escalation in Ukraine, potentially including an end to the war, or move in the opposite direction — tightening controls across the board, even to the point of a new mobilization. It’s impossible to predict what decision Mr. Putin will make. But a large factor will be whether America continues in its own war.不久前还难以想象的民众不满情绪，如今已成为日常生活的一部分。似乎用不了多久，普京就必须做出重大抉择：要么同意乌克兰问题上的某种缓和方案，甚至可能结束战争；要么走向相反方向——全面收紧管控，甚至启动新一轮动员。无法预测普京会做何决定，但美国是否继续深陷伊朗战争将是一个重要的影响因素。Mikhail Zygar (@zygaro)曾任独立新闻电视台TV Rain主编，著有《The Dark Side of the Earth: Russia’s Short-Lived Victory Over Totalitarianism》，他是新闻电邮The Last Pioneer的作者。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。