Dollar-loonie at two-month highs despite oil’s gainsUS Dollar/Canadian DollarFX:USDCADMichael_Stark_ExnessThe Canadian dollar’s traditional correlation with crude oil hasn’t been evident at all in recent weeks amid the latter’s large gains due to supply issues. Recent rumours of possible first steps to a negotiated peace in the Gulf continue to swirl, but traders of forex in particular seem to be concentrating on the likelihood of significant divergences in monetary policy remaining for some time. One of these is between Canada and the USA with the BoC having limited rationale and scope to hike rates as inflation is below target and employment clearly weaker in recent months. Current prices above $1.38 are the highest since late January with the next possible resistance around $1.39. However, the price is currently testing the 200 SMA and clearly overbought based on the slow stochastic and Bollinger Bands. The golden cross of the 20 SMA over the 50 from Bands combined with generally high recent volume of buying signal an incipient uptrend but this depends very much on news of the conflict and monetary policy. $1.355 is a possible support being the area of lows from last summer as well as February and this month. It’d be unlikely to see the price decline sharply to there in only a few periods though given the three moving averages in the way barring some major development in the news or sentiment. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.