Market Overview — 24.03

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Market Overview — 24.03EUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDTylerWhite_Guys, good morning. Let’s break down what actually happened in the market yesterday. Once again, the entire agenda was completely taken over by the US–Iran situation. Around the middle of the European session, Trump came out with a statement saying that the US would not strike energy infrastructure for 5 days, as previously promised. And then, as usual, all global media instantly picked it up and started pushing it as “de-escalation,” almost like a ceasefire was already in place. Even though, in reality, no one really took the time to understand what exactly was said and what it actually means. But the market reacted immediately, of course. Brent dropped to around $95 at one point, and now it has recovered to about $98. Overall, markets are reading this as de-escalation — as a move toward negotiations and easing tensions. But if you look a bit deeper — there’s still zero real clarity. On one side, Trump says that productive negotiations have already been going on for two days, which is why they’re pausing strikes. On the other side, Iran says there are no negotiations at all and there won’t be any until their conditions are met (including unblocking the Strait of Hormuz). And this is where it gets interesting. Honestly, I don’t really trust either side. Trump often uses the same strategy — saying “negotiations are almost done, the deal is close” — to pressure the other side. We’ve seen this many times before: in tariff disputes, in international negotiations, etc. But Iran isn’t exactly a reliable source either. There have been plenty of fakes and contradictory statements coming from them as well. So right now, the best approach is not to listen to statements, but to watch the facts and the market reaction. And the market is currently showing: — oil below $100 — overall sentiment slightly improved — early signs of de-escalation But again, these are expectations — not confirmed reality. Also worth noting — once again, we saw “interesting moves.” About 15 minutes before the news, there were relatively large transactions on other financial markets, around $6 million. Looks like a classic insider story. At this point, it almost always accompanies Trump-related news. Now, what do we have today? Key focus — PMI releases for: — Eurozone — United Kingdom — United States I get that with this level of geopolitical volatility, PMI might seem secondary. But in reality, these are very important data points. PMI is a large-scale survey of purchasing managers in major companies. If businesses feel confident and are increasing purchases — the index is above 50. If companies are cutting back and preparing for trouble — it’s below 50. And these numbers will show us several key things: How much the situation in the Persian Gulf is already impacting the economy What the real business sentiment looks like What we can expect from the economy in the coming months So even if the market reaction is limited — these are not data to ignore. This is more about understanding the future than catching an immediate move. Overall, we keep watching the news flow and market reaction closely. Sentiment is cautiously positive for now, but the situation remains very fragile.