Bearish Crossover on the Monthly MACD... Historically not goodS&P 500SP:SPXdwestw01I've been checking the monthly chart and saw that the MACD line officially crossed the signal line. I looked back to 2009 and saw that every time except once there was a bearish crossover, SPX dropped at least 15%. That's a pretty strong correlation. The chart is in a log scale and you can see the channel we are in... and we're at the top. (Channel was taken from Tom Bowley from an Earnings Beats YT video, credit goes to him). So we are at the top of the channel, losing momentum on the monthly timeframe, rotation is out of growth sectors, sticky inflation, weakening job market, war with Iran, etc. Of course there are always reasons to be a bear, but the chart and indicators do not look good. Seems like a recipe for a 15+ percent correction. It's also a little scary that we have been chopping around in the same range for 6+ months... plenty of time for the big guys to rotate. On the daily chart it looks like a perfect rounded top, while QQQ has a nice pointy double top. I'm a longer-term swing trader and HODLer, so I'm just raising cash and looking for a good time to buy. I figure we'll get below 6000 and probably to the gap around 5800 at least. What do you guys think? I would love to hear other's opinions. Using Gemini AI to do sector analysis, the following sectors show bearish momentum. Of course you will see that they are the sectors largely responsible for growth. Sectors Flashing Bearish Signals These sectors are the primary culprits dragging the broader market down, exhibiting monthly MACD sell signals or severe momentum exhaustion: Information Technology (XLK): This is the heaviest weight on the market. Weakness across megacap tech (and the Nasdaq 100 as a whole) has triggered intermediate and long-term MACD sell signals. The momentum that fueled the AI-driven tech rally has structurally stalled. Consumer Discretionary (XLY): This sector has broken down significantly as consumer spending retreats amidst sticky inflation and elevated borrowing costs. It is showing clear, long-term momentum deterioration. Communication Services (XLC): Heavily tied to digital advertising and select megacap tech names, this sector is tracking the broader bearish tech momentum downward. Real Estate (XLRE): Continues to struggle under the weight of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range. The long-term momentum here remains firmly suppressed.