Shortly before the war with Iran began, I wrote that the seeming complacency among government officials and financial market participants was based on two assumptions which I argued were unlikely to turn out to be true: 1) President Donald Trump would make a last-minute deal with the Iranians and declare victory and 2) even if Trump didn't make such a deal, the Iranians would not do all the things which they threatened to do if attacked. Here we are, three weeks into the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. There was, of course,…