TDN's Senior Racing Editor Steve Sherack provides analysis for Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park and GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Both offer 100-50-25-15-10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.Last Saturday's Results – Black Hornet (Essential Quality) looked to be making a winning move on the far turn, but cornered poorly and packed it in from there to finish eighth at 16-1 in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks. Blacksmith (Liam's Map) failed to get involved early and was a no-show sixth at 6-1 in the GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby.GI Curlin Florida Derby – Commandment (Into Mischief) continues to move forward with every start for Brad Cox and is the one I want in this heavyweight showdown. He earned a field-best 101 Beyer Speed Figure in his game victory over 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Chief Wallabee (Constitution) while racing on the worst part of the track in the GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth and galloped out like there's still more to give. He's drawn well in post four and is tactical enough to work out a favorable trip. Even with regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. opting to ride Renegade (Into Mischief) in Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby, he'll still be in great hands with Flavien Prat. Nearly (Not This Time) is the main danger. He paired up high-90 Beyers for Todd Pletcher in his ultra-impressive GIII Holy Bull win and is training like he's only getting better. Selection: #4 Commandment (5-2).GI Arkansas Derby – Blackout Time (Not This Time) showed enough promise at two–he earned 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' honors in a blowout maiden win at Ellis Park last summer–to give him another chance at what has to be a nice price. Scratched by the regulatory veterinarians in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar, the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity runner-up resurfaced with a fourth-place finish after pressing the pace while hung out three-wide throughout in the GII Rebel. Fired a best-of-91, four-furlong bullet in :47 at Oaklawn Mar. 14 and should work out a great trip beneath Brian Hernandez, Jr. just behind the speed from his inside draw. Has every right to move forward second start off the bench for Ken McPeek. Deserving favorite Renegade (Into Mischief) is the clear-cut horse to beat following a very impressive come-from-behind win in his sophomore debut in the Sam F. Davis. Selection: #3 Blackout Time (6-1).The post Handicapping the Kentucky Derby Preps: Curlin Florida Derby & Arkansas Derby appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.