Do you trust Trump?That's the question that every market participant is asking today. The US President said several times today that the White House has had discussions with Iran about ending strikes and opening up the Strait of Hormuz. The problem is that Iran has denied every claim.There are possible reason for the mess of information including that it's unpopular to negotiate in Iran and the hardliners have taken over, sensing they can squeeze the US on Hormuz. What we do know is that Trump seems to want peace and doesn't want to escalate further into strikes on energy infrastructure in Iran or neighboring countries. That's good news because as of right now, virtually all the damage from the war can be repaired fairly quickly, with oil flows returning to near normal.Should the fighting escalate to energy infrastructure, there's no guarantee the oil can be brought back quickly. Moreover, it could escalate into another forever war that's destabilizing to the whole region. For now, the market reaction is optimistic but still tepid. The S&P 500 is up 1.5% but was up 2% earlier. US 2-year yields traded above 4% at the open on fears of rate hikes but that's pared back to 3.83%, down 6 bps on the day but still far above the 3.45% pre-war levels. Oil is the biggest mover today with May WTI down $9.07 to $89.20 but it had traded as low as $84.37.I'd classify the moves as cautious optimism but there is still a long ways to go. Trump set a 5-day timeline for ceasefire negotiations and said there was a high chance of success. At the same time, that five-day 'deadline' falls on the weekend and that's time when Trump likes to escalate.An Israeli report said Trump has set April 9 as a deadline to end the war so that leaves the possibility that the US is playing games and trying to keep oil prices down, as Iran accuses. Another uncomfortable detail is that the marine unit that was summoned from Japan will arrive to the theatre in the next day or so. That's the group that could escalate over the weekend (or before).At the outset of the war, Trump's team may have been successful in assassinating Iran's leadership by giving them a false sense of security during talks. Iran (and markets) won't forget that.So it comes back to the question: Do you trust Trump? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.