After the strikes the United States and Israel carried out on Iran began on Feb 28, Iran immediately announced it was forbidding the US, Israel, and their military allies from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz and warned they would face retaliatory attacks.The waterway carrying one-fifth of the world’s oil remains effectively closed due to the ongoing conflict, driving up energy prices and raising concerns in Europe, which had already been hit hard by disruptions to oil supplies caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.By mid-March, average Euro95 standard-grade gasoline prices had risen in several European Union countries, with prices in Belgium moving from 1.54 euros per liter to 1.64 euros, in France from 1.71 euros to 1.80 euros, and in Germany from 1.90 euros to more than 2 euros.Although the conflict is taking place some 4,000 kilometers away from Europe, its impact has been felt across the continent. European tourists, following instructions from their embassies, have been forced to evacuate; numerous flights from Europe to Asia have been rerouted to avoid the conflict in the Middle East; and, most significantly, a deepening energy crisis has spread across Europe, placing pressure on European societies and imposing costs they should not have had to bear.Now, almost one month into the conflict and consequential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, different parties have used varying terms to describe its status, but ship traffic and crude volumes tell the real story.According to Hormuzstraitmonitor, a website that provides real-time tracking of ships transiting the strait, the number of vessels fell to just eight on March 18 and has remained in single digits for an extended period. For comparison, an average of 77 ships passed through each day before the strike.Data from maritime analytics firm Windward showed that March 14 marked a historic moment as the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz dropped to zero for the first time since the conflict began.Those missing ships previously carried about 21 million barrels a day of oil and petroleum products out of the Persian Gulf, a significant share bound for Europe’s fuel stations, chemical plants, and power generators.With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil and liquid natural gas, or LNG, long expected by European buyers can no longer reach their destinations, driving up fuel prices across the continent.“It’s terrible,” said George, a taxi driver in Brussels. “In the past I could cover the cost of a full tank in six or eight trips, but now I need one or two more. I have five children to feed. Why should a war in the Middle East cost me money?”On March 19, French shipping group CMA CGM announced it would introduce a fuel surcharge on land transport the following week, after already adding surcharges on sea routes due to higher fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict.As early as March 4, the United Kingdom’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research warned that interest rates could be pushed back above 4 percent if the US-Israel-Iran conflict leads to a sustained surge in oil and gas prices.On March 19, experts at the European Central Bank were reported to expect eurozone inflation to rise to 2.6 percent in 2026, up from a 1.9 percent estimate in December 2025.Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, or IEA, said on Monday that the crisis in the Middle East has had a worse combined impact than the two oil shocks of the 1970s and the effect on gas markets of the Ukraine crisis.“Some of the vital arteries of the global economy, such as petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur, helium — their trade is all interrupted, which would have serious consequences for the global economy,” Birol said.“Among the energy resources blocked from leaving the Strait of Hormuz, gas matters even more than oil,” Qin Yan, a principal analyst at Norway-based ClearBlue Markets, told China Daily, noting that gas accounts for a larger share of Europe’s energy mix and that the continent relies heavily on imports.According to the European Commission, Europe’s energy mix consists of approximately 38 percent crude oil and petroleum products, 21 percent natural gas, 20 percent renewable energy, 12 percent nuclear energy, and about 9 percent solid fuels.While the structure appears balanced, a closer look reveals vulnerabilities. “Europe’s energy system is relatively diversified, with a growing share of renewables, but it still relies significantly on imported fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas linked to global trade flows,” said Isaac Levi, team lead of Europe-Russia Policy and Energy Analysis at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.“The EU is incredibly reliant on imported fossil fuels, leaving it very vulnerable to price spikes and energy security risks.”Before the Ukraine crisis in 2022, pipelines transported large volumes of relatively cheap gas from Russia to Europe, with the Nord Stream pipelines among the most important. Since then, and with advances in LNG technology, Europe has turned to suppliers in the Middle East and the US, with Qatar, located in the Persian Gulf, becoming one of its key sources. Those LNG shipments cannot reach Europe under current conditions.To make things worse, an Iranian missile strike on March 18, which was in retaliation for earlier Israeli attacks on Iran’s gas infrastructure, had hit several LNG facilities in Qatar according to QatarEnergy, wiping out 17 percent of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. US oil major ExxonMobil is a partner in the damaged LNG facilities. European natural gas futures surged by 27 percent that day on fears of prolonged supply disruptions.“Gas has a huge impact on prices since most electricity markets use marginal pricing, meaning gas often sets the final price,” said Angel Saz-Carranza, director of Esade Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics in Spain. “This transmits volatility in gas prices directly into electricity prices.”Jian Junbo, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, echoed this view, noting that while both oil and natural gas are fuels, oil is more often used as an industrial feedstock, whereas natural gas is mainly used for power generation, meaning its impact on daily life is felt more quickly.Qin, of ClearBlue Markets, added: “That’s only the beginning of Europe’s problem — while oil can be sourced from alternatives such as Venezuela, LNG options are far more limited, especially given fierce competition with Asian buyers. If oil is about money, then LNG is about life.”On March 20, QatarEnergy’s CEO said the March 18 attacks had wiped out 17 percent of the country’s LNG capacity for up to five years, warning that the disruption would not be resolved quickly.“This chain of events has sparked fears of further escalation in a conflict that, in less than three weeks, has rocked global energy markets and sent gas and oil prices soaring,” French newspaper Le Monde reported.As LNG supplies tighten further, divisions among EU member states are widening, and what were once considered established areas of policy consensus are fraying.A noticeable trend is emerging: in Eastern Europe, where economies often lack both sufficient energy resources and the financial capacity to secure them at high prices, there is a strong push to diversify energy supplies.For years, Slovakia and Hungary have opposed the EU ban on Russian oil and gas. On March 8, just eight days after the US-Israel-Iran conflict broke out, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico said his country would push to restart Russian oil flows and even threatened to block EU decisions if supplies were not restored.In the Netherlands, calls have also grown to reopen the Groningen natural gas field, which was closed in October 2023 due to earthquake risks. Maarten van den Berg, an influential Dutch businessman, wrote on X: “Our alternative gas field in Qatar is on fire. Groningen must reopen in the national interest!”“The US-European LNG partnership — we will probably see it evolve, but it will not fade,” EU Ambassador to the US Jovita Neliupsiene was quoted by Politico Pro as saying, at an event organized by a US LNG trade association on Feb 23. Qin noted that voices advocating closer energy cooperation with the US have long existed within the EU, particularly as the US has already become the bloc’s largest LNG supplier.“As we can see, with LNG supplies tightening, disagreements within the EU are growing over environmental standards, relations with Russia and the US, and attitudes toward Iran, among other energy-related issues,” said Jian, comparing the situation to Thomas Hobbes’ famous phrase: “a war of every man against every man.”From March 19 to 20, the European Council held a summit addressing several issues, including energy security. In its March 19 conclusions, the Council stated that “targeted solutions are needed in the short term to ensure affordable energy”, while taking into account technological neutrality, national differences, industrial competitiveness, and the need to maintain a level playing field.Fico later posted a video on X, saying he had “refused to approve the conclusions of today’s summit.”Yet despite the disagreements, EU member states still share a basic consensus, said Koert Debeuf, a distinguished adjunct professor in Middle East studies at the Brussels School of Governance. “Energy policies vary widely between countries, especially between Eastern and Western Europe, as well as between richer and poorer nations. But their common interest lies in keeping key transport routes open while avoiding being drawn into the conflict.”“They were clearly not pleased by the recent escalation and are trying to maintain distance,” he added.As early as May 2022, the European Commission launched the REPowerEU initiative to curb gas consumption and accelerate the expansion of wind and solar power. By February 2026, Europe had added 406 GW of solar capacity and 234 GW of wind, pushing renewables to just over 47 percent of its electricity mix.Yet despite this rapid transition, natural gas-fired power generation remains an unavoidable fall-back for many European countries. In Germany, where the nuclear phase-out was accelerated after the Fukushima disaster in 2011 and completed in 2023, calls to reconsider nuclear energy have grown following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Even European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen acknowledged at a nuclear summit in Paris this March that “it was a strategic mistake for Europe to turn its back on a reliable, affordable source of low-emissions power.”According to Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, a report published by the IEA, the lifecycle emissions of nuclear power are comparable to those of wind, making it an important component of the EU’s decarbonization strategy. “It is common sense that nuclear power is clean, and it was largely political considerations that led Germany to phase out the phaseout policy,” said Wu Jiang, a professor at the School of German Studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University.However, reversing the phaseout policy would take time. “Training engineers cannot be completed within a few years,” said Ying Xiao, a nuclear industry analyst. “For a country like Germany, rebuilding nuclear infrastructure is not so much a technological challenge — given its advanced industrial base — but a question of human resources.”“When will this war end? I’ve had enough of high oil prices — I need to make a living,” said George, the Brussels taxi driver.On March 20, US officials said additional Marines and an amphibious assault ship were being deployed to the Middle East. “The US military can take out Kharg Island (Iran’s main oil export terminal) at any time,” the BBC quoted a White House official as saying, adding that while there were no immediate plans to deploy ground troops, “all options remain on the table.”So far, there is no other answer to George’s question.