USD/JPY: The 160.00 Test

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USD/JPY: The 160.00 TestU.S. Dollar / Japanese YenFOREXCOM:USDJPYFOREXcomFor the first time since July of 2024 USD/JPY has pushed above the 160.00 handle. The move hit around 1am Tokyo time so we could still see a response from Japanese policymakers around the Sunday open, and interestingly, last week began with another threat of intervention that brought pullback to USD/JPY which was jumped on buy buyers that drove right back up to create the current fresh highs. At this point chasing the move is still a challenge, especially given the dynamics around weekly closes and opens. But, price being above 160.00 isn't necessarily a death knell either as, like 2022, we may simply be seeing the BoJ move their line-in-the-sand a bit higher. Overhead, it's the 161.95 level that stands out which is a clean 1,000 pips above the intervention-high in 2022 (which held in 2023, as well), while also being the swing-high from 2024. Until the fundamental backdrop changes, it's difficult to imagine interventions having any long-lasting success so if we do see the BoJ forced into action, that pullback remains as opportunistic, like we saw in April of 2024. - js