With over 90 million annual passengers, Dubai is one of the world's busiest airports. shanid chirammal house/ShutterstockGlobal instability did little to slow the growth of international tourism in 2025. According to the UN Tourism Data Dashboard, the total number of international travellers last year stood at over 1.5 billion, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. The question is no longer whether geopolitics makes us travel less, but how it reshapes tourist flows.For a long time, geopolitical crises had an almost automatic impact on this sector. Instability led to fewer travellers, fewer bookings, and less activity. Following the sharp decline in travel caused by the pandemic, international tourism has been growing, even in the face of mounting conflicts and uncertainty. But as numbers grow, travel patterns are also shifting. One of the clearest examples of this can be found in the Gulf, a region that has invested billions of dollars to establish itself as an innovative tourist destination, and as a major hub linking Europe, Asia and Africa.Before the war in Iran began, this regional strategy seemed well established. In 2025, Dubai welcomed almost 20 million international tourists, while Qatar’s capital Doha was named the Gulf Tourism Capital for 2026. However, to continue being attractive destinations, these countries need to guarantee connectivity and stability, both of which are seriously jeopardised by the ongoing conflict.Winners and losersIn tourism, the perception of risk is almost as important as actual risk. A destination may not be directly affected by a war or a crisis, but if it becomes associated with a situation of instability, many travellers will choose more reassuring alternatives.Importantly, many travellers do not stop travelling in times of uncertainty, but they do change their destinations, opting for places they perceive as safer, more accessible or more predictable. Tourism does not disappear, it simply shifts.This is already evident in the regions affected by the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, as the crisis in the Middle East has funnelled tourist demand towards destinations considered safer. For instance, some major tour operators have increased their capacity in the Canary Islands after temporarily withdrawing from the Middle East. These trends are not driven by cultural heritage, gastronomy or the natural environment, but by geopolitical factors: political stability, air connectivity, visa requirements and the international perception of risk. Leer más: Real estate powered Dubai’s rise as a magnet for expats. Can its brand survive this war? Travel costsAfter the Iran conflict broke out in early March, key airports in the Middle East – such as those in Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi – either closed or faced restrictions. This is a major issue in itself, as the Middle East accounts for 14% of international traffic transit. Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Bahrain handle a combined total of around 526,000 passengers per day. This reorganisation also affects other air transport hubs, as when key routes are disrupted, air traffic is redirected to safer or more operationally stable alternatives. Istanbul Airport, a strategic hub connecting Europe, Asia and Africa, could benefit from the instability in the Gulf and strengthen its role as a global transit point, attracting passengers who previously connected via Dubai, Doha or Abu Dhabi. This has implications both for air transport and city tourism. More stopovers mean more overnight stays, increased tourist spending, and greater international visibility for the destination. This is all in addition to the direct economic cost. The World Travel and Tourism Council estimates that the conflict with Iran is causing daily losses of around $600 million to the tourism sector. Part of this is ultimately passed on to travellers in the form of more expensive, longer and more uncertain journeys. Leer más: Will a ‘Trump slump’ continue to hit US tourism in 2026 − and even keep World Cup fans away? Changing tourist behavioursIn times of uncertainty, tourists adjust their decisions. Instability brings with it an increase in bookings with flexible cancellation terms, travel insurance becomes more important, and interest in nearer or well-connected destinations grows. The balance between price and safety is also a key factor. A destination may still be attractive, but if it raises concerns or involves additional costs, many travellers will pick a more straightforward alternative.This changes demand patterns. Even in 2025, insurance company Allianz saw a 9% increase in its travel insurance turnover in Spain, with cancellations accounting for more than half of all claims. People still want to travel, but travellers are becoming more cautious and risk-averse.Stability is what countsFor many destinations, their appeal is built around a sense of being safe, well-connected and predictable, and what is happening in the Gulf proves this. Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi had built their appeal on luxury, innovation, major events and airport efficiency, but that advantage depends on reliable travel routes and a well-maintained perception of safety. If these disappear, it doesn’t just affect certain destinations: the entire map is redrawn.Other countries will now gain popularity. The winners may not be the cheapest or the most spectacular, but they will be the ones that offer travellers the smoothest experience: better connections, less uncertainty, and an air of normality.Geopolitics does not, at least for now, seem to be causing the widespread collapse of global tourism. But it is creating a system that is more fragmented, more unequal, and more sensitive to perceptions of risk. A weekly e-mail in English featuring expertise from scholars and researchers. It provides an introduction to the diversity of research coming out of the continent and considers some of the key issues facing European countries. Get the newsletter!Las personas firmantes no son asalariadas, ni consultoras, ni poseen acciones, ni reciben financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y han declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado anteriormente.