Crude Oil Enters Key Reversal Zone

Wait 5 sec.

Crude Oil Enters Key Reversal ZoneCrude Oil FuturesNYMEX_DL:CL1!ew-forecastCrude oil has rallied sharply from the March 10th low near 75, unfolding in what appears to be at least a three-wave recovery, as outlined in our previous analysis. With the latest price action, the market has now pushed back above the 100 level and is testing the prior wave “a” high, signaling entry into a critical resistance and potential reversal zone. This key zone is defined between 104.70 and 107.70, with an extension toward 110 also acting as a significant barrier, particularly as it aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Given this confluence of resistance, the market may be approaching exhaustion, opening the door for a bearish turn—potentially as early as this week. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current structure supports the view that a larger corrective phase is still in play. As long as crude oil remains below the 120 level, the outlook favors the development of a strong impulsive move to the downside. Such a decline would likely represent part of wave E, as illustrated on both the daily and monthly timeframes. A renewed move lower in crude oil could have broader intermarket implications. In particular, it may provide support for equity markets, while contributing to a slowdown in the U.S. dollar’s momentum.