6 min readMar 26, 2026 07:24 PM IST First published on: Mar 26, 2026 at 07:24 PM ISTWritten by Subhrangshu Pratim SarmahAfter the NDA emerged as the winner in the 2021 Assam election, Himanta Biswa Sarma became the Chief Minister of Assam, and the policies and political positions he has taken since then have not only reshaped Assamese consciousness but also sparked national debates. As the NDA government faces re-election after a 10-year tenure, like any other state, people will have grievances against the government. The promise of Scheduled Tribe status to six communities in the state, development bottlenecks in some areas, and the assertion of identity by a particularly dominant community in upper Assam for greater political power against the centralisation of power in the state may definitely impact the electoral outcome. The opposition parties, led by the Indian National Congress (barring Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF), have come together under one roof for this election. Compared to previous elections, from the 2024 Lok Sabha election onwards, the visual representation of the threat posed by “undocumented immigrants” has been missing for the people in upper Assam. Last but not least, the sudden death of Assam’s cultural colossus, Zubeen Garg, and the politics that ensued in its aftermath may have some impact on the minds of young voters.AdvertisementHowever, the key variable for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in this election is CM Sarma. While Sarma’s organisational grip, political maneuvering, and campaigning have been instrumental in the electoral triumphs of both the Congress and the BJP in Assam since 2006, this is the first time in his 25-year-long legislative career that an election will be fought on his face, rhetoric and policies. Welfare/development and identity are the two planks of Sarma’s political leadership which require audit as the state moves to polling in less than a month.Of late, direct benefit transfers (DBT) to voters have become the mainstay of Indian politics in every election. Long before the Madhya Pradesh government launched the Ladli Behna scheme in 2023, Assam had begun Orunodoi in 2020, providing monthly financial support to economically vulnerable women in the state. About 40 lakh women received Rs 9,000 each under Orunodoi on March 10 this year. Not just Orunodoi, but the DBT schemes of the Assam government under Sarma extend to students (Nijut Moina & Nijut Babu), graduates (Jibon Prerana), and research scholars (Jibon Anuprerana), among others. Mukhya Mantrir Atmanirbhar Asom Abhijan for self-employment among youth and Mukhya Mantri Mahila Udyamita Abhiyaan for women-led micro entrepreneurship are the two other prominent DBT schemes of this government, both performance-based and bank loan-linked. However, critics have raised doubts over the state’s long-term financial health due to these populist measures, given Assam’s liabilities are likely to reach Rs 2.06 lakh crores by the end of this financial year, as per the RBI. It is equally true, though, that Assam’s debt-to-GSDP ratio remains stable (24.4 per cent in 2020-21 to 25.1 per cent in 2024-25) and the state has topped the RBI’s report as the fastest-growing state economy over the last five years.In terms of governance and development, the last five years of Sarma’s tenure in Assam witnessed several key milestones with transparent recruitment in more than 1-lakh government jobs, a massive crackdown on drug cartels, digitisation, and a reduction in pendency of land records via Mission Basundhara, zero cases of rhino poaching in 2025, decentralisation of governance paradigm via the creation of co-districts, state-wide infrastructural development with the construction of numerous flyovers, river-bridges, and roads, establishment of a semiconductor unit and last but not the least, representation of the state by Himanta Biswa himself in the World Economic Forum (WEF) at Davos in 2026. While implementation and last-mile delivery remain key governance challenges, for a state that has been grappling with insurgency, floods, and underdevelopment for years, these are giant leaps.AdvertisementHowever, no election in Assam is won on welfare alone. The issue of “illegal immigration” remains a subliminal emotion for the voters, as the state had seen one of the largest student movements on this issue between 1979 and 1985 (of which Sarma was a part). That is why the potpourri of Hindutva and Assamese ethno-nationalism emerges as part of Himanta Biswa’s second plank of politics — the identityHindutva in the context of Assam is packaged in the vocabulary of Assamese ethno-nationalism without targeting “indigenous” Muslims. Ever since assuming office, Himanta has consistently sought to appeal to this ethno-nationalist impulse among Assamese voters, while packaging it as a push for Hindutva for the wider Indian public. Banning polygamy, a crackdown on child marriage, large-scale evictions from encroached land, and continuous pushing back of illegal immigrants at the Indo-Bangladesh border have been some key steps in this regard. While these steps remain popular in the minds of the majority of the population, the Bengali-origin Muslims view the overall political messaging of the government as being inimical to their interests and human rights. The recent delimitation of constituencies in Assam is said to have reduced their electoral bargaining power. The usually religion-neutral character of Assamese society too has witnessed cracks over the last decade due to increased polarisation. Achieving a reflective equilibrium between maintaining Assam’s secular fabric and protecting Assamese indigeneity is a challenge that Himanta Biswa will face in the days to come.you may likeEthnic politics in Assam remains vibrant, but given changing demographics and rising political awareness, power now requires a broad cross-ethnic coalition, something Himanta Biswa Sarma has pursued through a Hindutva-based alliance while still engaging ethnic leadership, reflecting the enduring salience of identity politics. Performance of Bihu, Jhumur (of tea-garden communities), and Bagurumba (of the Bodo tribe) by thousands of dancers in front of PM Narendra Modi in Assam, celebration of Lachit Borphukan’s 400th birth anniversary in Delhi, restoration of Assam’s saint-scholar Srimanta Sankardev’s birthplace Batadrava Than, legalising land rights of tea garden workers, and reservation in government jobs to communities like Moran and Motok are some of the numerous steps that prove how in Assam, ethnic sentiments are being comfortably juxtaposed with the Hindutva narrative.The election is a referendum on Himanta Biswa Sarma’s leadership, testing his personal mandate. It will also assess Gaurav Gogoi’s ability to revive Congress despite significant challenges. The contest offers a chance to shape a new generation of leaders for a post-Himanta era, even as Sarma’s national ambitions take clearer form. Ultimately, his legacy will hinge on whether he unites Assam through development or deepens existing divisions.The writer is a Doctoral Candidate at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. Views are personal