SUPPORT ETHIOPIA INSIGHT .wpedon-container .wpedon-select, .wpedon-container .wpedon-input { width: 200px; min-width: 200px; max-width: 200px; } Abiy’s government to push ahead with elections as conflict and repression stifle democracy.Ethiopia is approaching a national election scheduled for the coming June amid profound uncertainty. Across much of the country, the political landscape remains unsettled, shaped by ongoing war, large-scale displacement, and diminishing state control.In several regions, daily life remains severely disrupted, complicating even the most basic forms of civic participation.Elections are meant to register the political will of a population at a given point in time. Yet the context in which they are held inevitably shapes what they capture, and what they leave out.As Ethiopia moves closer to the planned vote, the surrounding realities raise difficult questions about how the process will unfold and what kind of outcome it can credibly produce.Active FrontlinesThe country’s security landscape is fractured and volatile. In the Amhara region, fighting between government forces and Fano insurgents continues across wide areas, with Fano holding significant stretches of the countryside. In some localities, state authority has eroded to the point that local officials operate from military camps.For civilians, daily life unfolds under persistent threat. Drone strikes and artillery fire have expanded the reach of violence beyond conventional frontlines. Millions of people have been displaced, eroding the social foundations that sustain political participation.Campaigning, organizing, and assembling are extraordinarily difficult, with restricted travel for political actors and risky public gatherings making interaction with voters nearly impossible. Even in the regional capital, Bahir Dar, normal interaction between candidates and voters has vanished.Beyond Amhara, tensions in Tigray are escalating, with rhetoric signaling the risk of renewed conflict. Meanwhile, in Oromia, armed confrontation persists across several zones. Taken together, these dynamics paint a national picture defined more by uncertainty than stability.Narrowed ArenaThe constraints on Ethiopia’s electoral environment extend beyond the battlefield. The broader political space has tightened, with a wave of arrests and legal pressures affecting politicians, journalists, and civic actors. For many, operating openly has become increasingly difficult.At the same time, official narratives project an image of order and continuity. State media coverage portrays stability and progress, overlooking the severe disruption across the country. The gap between this portrayal and lived realities in conflict-affected areas is stark.Elections require more than simply casting ballots. They depend on an environment where ideas can be contested and alternatives organized freely. When these conditions are restricted, participation risks becoming merely procedural, with outcomes shaped more by systemic constraints than by the genuine choices of citizens.Wartime CostsHolding a national election amid ongoing war carries profound risks. Voters, election workers, and candidates face serious security threats, and in conflict-affected areas, participation is effectively impossible.An election conducted under such conditions could deepen divisions, close off space for meaningful dialogue, and entrench repression, all while claiming legitimacy it does not truly possess.The question of priorities is equally pressing. Organizing a national vote requires substantial public resources.At a time when millions are displaced and living in constant insecurity, allocating scarce resources to an election of dubious credibility raises urgent concerns. The process risks appearing self-serving, designed more to consolidate power than to reflect the will of the people.Ethiopia’s electoral trajectory carries implications beyond its borders. International partners assess elections against benchmarks of credibility and inclusivity, and a process conducted amid widespread conflict is likely to face skepticism, with consequences for diplomatic engagement and financial support.Regionally, Ethiopia remains a central actor in the Horn of Africa. Instability within its borders has a history of reverberating outward through refugee flows, security dynamics, and economic disruption. An election that intensifies internal divisions could add strain to an already fragile regional environment.Reckoning PrioritiesThe issue confronting Ethiopia is not simply whether to hold an election, but under what conditions it should take place. Stabilization remains the immediate priority.De-escalation of conflict, particularly in the Amhara region, alongside efforts to prevent renewed fighting elsewhere, would begin to alter the national trajectory.Reopening political space and enabling broader participation are equally essential. In this context, rather than holding futile elections, it is vital to heed the majority of citizens’ calls for a genuine political transition.Elections draw their meaning from the environment in which they occur. When violence disrupts communities, constrains movement, and narrows political life, the act of voting cannot by itself confer legitimacy.Without the basic conditions that allow citizens to participate freely and safely, a national vote risks reflecting exclusion as much as representation.The urgency, therefore, lies not in adhering to an electoral timetable but in addressing the conflicts and constraints that define the present moment. Only then can an election function as a credible instrument of public choice rather than a process conducted in the shadow of war. .wpedon-container .wpedon-select, .wpedon-container .wpedon-input { width: 200px; min-width: 200px; max-width: 200px; } Query or correction? Email us window.addEventListener("sfsi_functions_loaded", function(){if (typeof sfsi_widget_set == "function") {sfsi_widget_set();}}); While this commentary contains the author’s opinions, Ethiopia Insight will correct factual errors.Main photo: Political party representatives participate in their first televised live debate, February 2026. Source: Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation.Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. You may not use the material for commercial purposes.The post Ethiopia Heads to Elections Amid War and Instability appeared first on Ethiopia Insight.