Longtime oil analyst sends dire oil price message

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RegExp("[?&]notifications=1(&|#|$)");"desktop"===h&&i&&b.test(window.location.search)&&(i.checked=!0)};ge("ybar-mod-notification",(function(e){var t={isUH3:"crunch"===e.getConfig().ytheme,notifContainer:document.getElementById("notification-container"),notifBadge:document.getElementById("notif-badge"),notifMenu:document.getElementById("ybarNotificationMenu"),notifMenuOpener:document.querySelector("#ybarNotificationMenu + label"),notifDropdown:document.getElementById("notifDropdownContainer"),tooltipContainer:document.querySelector(".".concat(no)),notifLabel:document.querySelector(".".concat(oo))};t.notifDropdown&&mo(e,t)}))}()}};]]>ADVERTISEMENTCharley BlaineFri, March 27, 2026 at 5:03 AM GMT+1 6 min readJeff Currie could pass as a preacher. But you may not like what he's preaching.The partner of the Carlyle Group and head of its Energy Pathways Group thinks oil prices have not yet peaked thanks to the Iran war, now finishing its fourth week. Not even close. Absent a sudden truce, he sees prices rising into the summer before peaking.How high? Currie has been careful not to put a dollar number on the issues. Wood Mackenzie, a London financial house that specializes in energy, thinks a drawn-out war could push oil prices to $200 a barrel, maybe more.How does that translate into pump prices in the United States? The U.S. average price was $3.983 a gallon on March 26, according to GasBuddy.com with light sweet crude, the U.S. benchmark at $94.48 per 42-gallon barrel. So, $200 crude would push the U.S. average pump price to darn near $8.For many folks, $8 for the country means catastrophe. There is one gas station near Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles charging about $8.70 a gallon. California's statewide average is about $5.82 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.com. And Mono County in far-eastern California averages $6.58. The state average in Texas is $3.58, while the U.S. average is $3.983.What would $8 gas mean?Unfathomable, suggested Patrick DeHaan, GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis. Someone would step in before that happened. Otherwise, he said, it would be a massive failure in leadership — and almost certainly a recession. And a bad one. I lived through two of the worst recessions: the 1973-75 pullback from the Arab Oil Embargo. And soaring oil and gasoline prices made the 2008 financial crisis more difficult.Why could this even happen? It's the Iran war.The war has shut down most oil liquid natural gas shipments from the Persian Gulf because Iran is letting only tankers, maybe just 10, loaded with Iranian oil through the Strait of Hormuz. That's the 104-mile-long sliver of water that ties the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.About 20% of the world's crude oil and a similar amount of its liquid natural gas passes through the strait.Before the war broke out, 120 tankers and freighters passed through the strait every day.Check out the Philippines, which imports almost all of its oil and natural gas from Persian Gulf nations. The Philippine government has declared a national emergency to cope with the sudden shock of the Iran war. It's common to see gas stations with signs saying they have no gas.To conserve energy, South Korea has told its residents to take shorter showers and charge cellphones during the day. Jet fuel prices have soared, causing havoc for Asian carriers. 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