MICHAEL CROWLEY2026年3月25日特朗普曾表示要利用其经济杠杆对古巴进行“友好接管”，并正在施压要求罢免古巴总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔。 Norlys Perez/ReutersA Russian oil tanker possibly bound for Cuba is highlighting a key U.S. security concern: the communist island’s ties to foreign adversaries who use Cuba to spy on the United States.一艘可能驶往古巴的俄罗斯油轮正凸显美国的一项重大安全关切：这个共产主义岛国与美国之敌的密切联系，这些国家会利用古巴对美国进行间谍活动。In an executive order in January, President Trump declared a national emergency and listed several reasons he was acting to choke off Cuba’s oil imports. Near the top was his complaint that the country “blatantly” allows Russia and China to “base sophisticated military and intelligence capabilities” there that threaten U.S. national security.特朗普总统在1月的行政命令中宣布进入国家紧急状态，并列出了他要切断古巴石油进口的几个理由。其中最主要的一条是他指责该国“公然”允许俄罗斯和中国在那里“部署先进的军事和情报能力”，这威胁到美国的国家安全。Specifically, the order noted, Cuba “hosts Russia’s largest overseas signals intelligence facility, which tries to steal sensitive national security information of the United States.”行政命令特别指出，古巴“设有俄罗斯最大海外信号情报设施，该设施试图窃取美国的敏感国家安全信息”。That is a reference to a Russian facility near Havana, established during the Cold War, that surveilled the United States for decades until it closed almost 25 years ago at a relatively warm moment in U.S.-Russian relations. But as tensions between Washington and Moscow froze over again, in 2014 Russia reopened the site, known as Lourdes.这指的是哈瓦那附近的一个俄罗斯设施，建立于冷战时期，曾监视美国数十年，直到大约25年前美俄关系相对缓和时关闭。但随着华盛顿和莫斯科的关系再次冻结，2014年俄罗斯重新开放了这个被称为“洛尔德斯”的基地。Former U.S. officials and experts say the base, which bristles with antennas and other eavesdropping equipment, is less sophisticated than China’s installations in Cuba. But it still puts Russian ears roughly 200 miles from the coast of Florida, which is home to several key U.S. military facilities, including Central Command, which oversees the Middle East; the satellite launchpads of Cape Canaveral; and Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club and residence at Palm Beach.美国前官员和专家表示，这个布满天线和其他窃听设备的基地不像中国在古巴设施那么精良。但它仍将俄罗斯的“耳朵”置于距离佛罗里达海岸约200英里的位置，而佛罗里达拥有多个关键的美国军事设施，包括负责中东事务的中央司令部、卡纳维拉尔角的卫星发射场，以及特朗普的马阿拉歌庄园和棕榈滩住所。“What an unbelievably rich location,” said Glenn S. Gerstell, a former general counsel for the U.S. National Security Agency. “Who would think that sitting in Cuba you might learn about what we’re doing in the Middle East?”“这是多么难以置信的绝佳位置啊，”美国国家安全局前总法律顾问格伦·S·格斯特尔说。“谁能想到坐在古巴就能了解到我们在中东的行动？”Russia, China and Cuba have all denied the presence of foreign spy bases on the island.俄罗斯、中国和古巴都否认岛上存在外国间谍基地。Preserving Lourdes may be one reason President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia might risk angering Mr. Trump by shipping oil to Cuba, whose communist government is struggling to sustain the island’s frail economy after Mr. Trump forced its two main petroleum suppliers, Venezuela and Mexico, to halt their shipments earlier this year.保留洛尔德斯基地可能是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京愿意冒险激怒特朗普、向古巴运送石油的原因之一。古巴的共产主义政府在特朗普今年早些时候迫使其两个主要石油供应国委内瑞拉和墨西哥停止供油后，正艰难维持这个岛国脆弱的经济。The Kremlin has been coy in response to questions about whether a Russian tanker carrying 730,000 barrels of crude oil across the North Atlantic is headed for Cuba. Analysts say that the ship’s cargo, on pace to arrive by the end of the month, could power the island for weeks.在回应有关一艘载有73万桶原油、穿越北大西洋的俄罗斯油轮是否驶往古巴的问题时，克里姆林宫的态度暧昧。分析人士表示，该船货物按计划将在本月底前抵达，能够为古巴提供数周的电力。Mr. Trump has spoken of using his economic leverage to mount a “friendly takeover” of Cuba and is pressing for the ouster of its president, Miguel Díaz-Canel. While Trump officials have not said whether they are demanding that the Cuban government expel Russian and Chinese operatives, Mr. Trump’s executive order indicates that the foreign bases are a high priority.特朗普曾表示要利用其经济杠杆对古巴进行“友好接管”，并正在施压要求罢免古巴总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔。虽然特朗普政府官员尚未说明是否要求古巴政府驱逐俄罗斯和中国的情报人员，但特朗普的行政命令表明，外国基地是高度优先事项。And Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is spearheading Mr. Trump’s Cuba policy, has long called the bases unacceptable. Asked in a 2016 Republican presidential primary debate to describe a “good” U.S. deal with Cuba, Mr. Rubio said it would mean in part that Havana “kicks out the Russians from Lourdes and kicks out the Chinese listening station in Bejucal.”负责主导特朗普古巴政策的国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥长期以来一直称这些基地不可接受。在2016年共和党总统初选辩论中，当被问及与古巴达成一项“好的”协议意味着什么时，鲁比奥表示，这在一定程度上意味着哈瓦那“把俄罗斯人从洛尔德斯踢出去，并把中国在贝胡卡尔的监听站也踢出去”。Bejucal is a hillside town about 20 miles south of Havana, from which satellite dishes can be seen rising from the tropical forest. Aerial photographs published and analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington show a sprawling compound that features large clearings dotted with antennas like candles on a birthday cake, several entrances to underground facilities and a radome, a weatherproof cover that protects sensitive equipment.贝胡卡尔是哈瓦那以南约20英里的一个山坡小镇，从那里可以看到卫星天线从热带森林中升起。华盛顿战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)发布并分析的卫星图片显示，这是一个庞大的园区，里面有大片空地，点缀着像生日蛋糕上的蜡烛一样的天线，还有几个通往地下设施的入口，以及一个雷达罩——一种保护敏感设备的防风雨外壳。2024年，位于哈瓦那以南的玛雅贝克省贝胡卡尔。One of four suspected Chinese listening posts in Cuba, the Bejucal base was built more than a decade ago but has undergone recent improvements. After disclosures by The Wall Street Journal in 2023, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken confirmed that Beijing had upgraded the site in 2019, adding that the Biden administration had taken a “more direct” diplomatic approach on the matter in response.作为古巴四个疑似中国监听站之一的贝胡卡尔基地于十多年前建成，但最近进行了升级。2023年《华尔街日报》披露后，时任国务卿安东尼·J·布林肯证实，北京在2019年对该站点进行了升级，并表示拜登政府对此采取了“更直接”的外交方式。There is little evidence that China has backed down, however. At a House Homeland Security subcommittee hearing last year, the chairman, Republican Representative Carlos Gimenez of Florida, called the Chinese sites “one of the most brazen intelligence operations ever attempted near the American mainland.”然而，几乎没有证据表明中国已经退让。在去年众议院国土安全小组委员会的听证会上，委员会主席、佛罗里达州共和党众议员卡洛斯·希门尼斯称这些中国站点是“有史以来美国本土附近进行的最大胆的情报行动之一”。Mr. Gimenez added that a U.S. military training range in Florida, which he did not name, was “the only training range that actually can simulate battle in the Taiwan Straits” and therefore a prime target of Chinese interest.希门尼斯还说，佛罗里达州的一个美国军事训练场（他未透露名称）是“唯一能够模拟台湾海峡实战的训练场”，因此成为中国关注的首要目标。Ryan Berg, a co-author of the Center for Strategic and International Studies report, noted at the hearing that China — which is trying to catch up with a U.S. advantage in space rocket technology — would also have a strong interest in tracking satellite launches from Cape Canaveral.战略与国际研究中心报告的合著者瑞安·伯格在听证会上指出，中国正试图赶超美国在太空火箭技术上的优势，因此对跟踪卡纳维拉尔角的卫星发射也会有强烈兴趣。Other U.S. sites probably targeted by the Chinese from Cuba, according to discussions at the hearing, include the headquarters of U.S. Southern Command, which is near Miami and oversees military operations in South America.根据听证会上的讨论，中国从古巴可能瞄准的其他美国目标还包括美国南方司令部的总部，该司令部位于迈阿密附近，负责南美洲的军事行动。This is not the first time Bejucal has been a fixation for U.S. security officials. In October 1962, American spy planes buzzed the area after identifying its underground concrete bunkers as a likely storage site for Soviet nuclear warheads — the trigger for the Cuban Missile Crisis.这并非贝胡卡尔第一次成为美国安全官员关注的焦点。1962年10月，美国间谍飞机在发现其地下混凝土掩体可能用于存放苏联核弹头后，对该地区进行了低空侦察——这正是古巴导弹危机的导火索。But some analysts downplayed the threat of the foreign bases in Cuba, especially Lourdes. One former career U.S. intelligence official said they were not a top priority during his tenure. He also noted that even if Mr. Trump succeeded in forcing the Russian and Chinese bases to shut down, those countries would still operate diplomatic facilities on the island, which would most likely teem with covert eavesdropping equipment.但一些分析人士对古巴外国基地的威胁不以为然，尤其是洛尔德斯基地。一位美国前职业情报官员表示，在他任职期间，这些基地并非工作重点。他还指出，即使特朗普成功迫使俄罗斯和中国的基地关闭，这些国家仍将在岛上保留外交设施，这些设施很可能布满秘密窃听设备。William LeoGrande, a Latin America specialist at American University who has been critical of Mr. Trump’s confrontational approach to Cuba, said he was skeptical of the foreign intelligence threat from the island. Mr. LeoGrande said he has been told that the Russian base at Lourdes is “obsolete,” and questioned whether China’s outposts were as threatening as advertised. “It’s a predicate for saying Cuba’s a threat,” he said. “It’s a perfect excuse.”美利坚大学拉丁美洲问题专家威廉·利昂格兰德长期批评特朗普对古巴的对抗性政策，他对来自该岛的外国情报威胁表示怀疑。利昂格兰德说，有人告诉他俄罗斯在洛尔德斯的基地已经“过时”，并质疑中国的哨站是否像宣传的那样具有威胁性。“这是说古巴构成威胁的一个前提，”他说。“这是一个完美的借口。”Mr. Gerstell noted that spy equipment does not need to be state of the art to be effective. Even in an age of fiber optics and ultrapowerful satellites, local antennas are still “surprisingly relevant,” he said, adding that they can often pick up signals like walkie-talkie and other radio chatter more clearly than more advanced but more distant methods.格斯特尔指出，间谍设备并不需要是最先进的才能发挥作用。即使在光纤和超强卫星的时代，本地天线仍然“惊人地有效”，他说，它们往往能比更先进但距离更远的方法更清晰地捕捉到对讲机和其他无线电通话。Cuba has benefited financially from hosting China and Russia over the years, which in return have reportedly paid Havana or forgiven its debts to the tune of tens of billions of dollars.这些年来，古巴通过为中国和俄罗斯设施提供场地在经济上获益，作为回报，据报道两国向哈瓦那提供了资金或减免了其债务，总额达数百亿美元。The three countries are united by their history of communism, even if Russia has abandoned that Soviet-era political model, and a common rivalry with the United States. After Fidel Castro overthrew his island’s dictatorship in 1959, Moscow became the island’s main patron.这三个国家因共产主义历史而团结在一起——尽管俄罗斯已放弃了苏联时代的政治模式，并且有着美国这个共同的敌手。1959年菲德尔·卡斯特罗推翻岛上独裁政权后，莫斯科成为古巴的主要支持者。The Lourdes base would become a major irritant for American officials. During a 1983 Oval Office address on the Soviet threat, President Ronald Reagan singled out the base, displaying declassified aerial photos of the facility and calling it “the largest of its kind in the world,” with a contingent of 1,500 Soviet technicians.洛尔德斯基地后来成为美国官员的一大心病。1983年，里根总统在椭圆形办公室发表关于苏联威胁的讲话时，专门点名该基地，并展示了已解密的设施航拍照片，称它是“世界上此类设施最大的”，驻有1500名苏联技术人员。After the Cold War’s end, relations between Washington and Moscow warmed, and a cash-strapped Kremlin scaled back its global reach. In October 2001, Mr. Putin announced that Russia would close the Lourdes base.冷战结束后，华盛顿与莫斯科的关系升温，资金拮据的克里姆林宫缩减了全球布局。2001年10月，普京宣布俄罗斯将关闭洛尔德斯基地。“This decision is another indication that the Cold War is over,” President George W. Bush said then in a statement. “President Putin understands that Russia and America are no longer adversaries.”“这一决定再次表明冷战已经结束，”当时的总统乔治·W·布什在一份声明中说。“普京总统明白，俄罗斯和美国不再是对手。”Michael Crowley为《纽约时报》报道国务院和美国外交政策。他曾在30多个国家进行报道，经常与国务卿一起出访。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。