U.S. Energy Dominance Agenda Can't Shield Driver From Higher Gasoline Prices

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and foremost, the price of crude oil carries the biggest weight in the formation of gasoline prices in America. And the price of crude oil has soared in the past three weeks since the war in the Middle East began.Second, the U.S. – even with the highest crude oil production rates in the past months – still consumes more oil than it produces domestically, at more than 20 million barrels per day. Moreover, not all domestically produced oil is suitable for refining at the U.S. refineries designed to run optimally on heavier crudes – crudes that the U.S. is not producing much of and still has to import.In other words, despite being the biggest oil producer by a mile, the United States still depends on crude oil sold at international market prices, and when they soar, gasoline prices do, too.Crude Price Makes More than Half of U.S. Gasoline PriceAs of January 2026, when the average retail price of gasoline was $2.81 per gallon, the price of crude oil made up 51% of the price Americans pay per gallon, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The weight of the crude oil price is the same in March, but with crude prices up by 30%, it is inevitable that the price of a gallon of gasoline is now more than $1 higher compared to before the Iran war.Related: This Ohio Factory is Trump’s Secret Weapon in the Rare Earth WarThe U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, has jumped from about $67 per barrel before the first U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 27, to as much as $99 a barrel as of early on Monday. The international benchmark Brent Crude has surged even more, and traded early on Monday at $112 per barrel, up from $73 per barrel just before the war started.Taxes account for 18% of the price of a gallon of gasoline, so even if the state and federal governments look to lower these taxes, the impact on gasoline prices would be much smaller than the impact from soaring crude oil prices.One month ago, the U.S. national average price of gasoline was $2.929 per gallon.Now it’s over $3.90 and on track to hit the $4/gal mark within hours. And that’s overwhelmingly due to the soaring crude oil prices as the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most vital oil chokepoint – remains closed and effectively sidelines more than 15% of global petroleum deliveries. 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