XAUUSD – Fake Breakout Incoming?GoldOANDA:XAUUSDVertexCapital_SMC🌍 Fundamental – Good news but not enough to reverse Gold price (XAUUSD) is recovering and surpassing the 4,450 mark in the European session, mainly due to: Donald Trump's statement on reducing tensions with Iran Slight weakening of the USD → supporting short-term gold increase 👉 This makes the market feel bullish again But the reality behind: Federal Reserve still maintains a "hawkish" stance High interest rate expectations persist Bond yields increase → money flows back to USD ⚠️ => Gold is supported by news, but restrained by cash flow 📊 Technical – Structure has not reversed Observation on H1: Price had a previous Break of Structure (BOS) downward Forming a series of Lower High – Lower Low → Confirmation: the main trend is still down Currently: Price is only pulling back (going up) And is entering the area: FVG (Fair Value Gap) Order Block (supply zone) = Premium Zone (high price area to sell) 👉 This is the area where Smart Money usually: pushes the price up → attracts BUY orders → then sells down 🎯 Main trading scenario (High Probability) 🔴 SELL THE RALLY Entry zone: 4,52x – 4,535 Ideal conditions: Signs of price rejection Or liquidity sweep 🎯 Targets: TP1: 4,377 TP2: 4,334 🛑 Wrong scenario: Price closes strongly above 4,535 → Only then consider the possibility of a bullish reversal Retail sees price increase → thinks it's a breakout Smart Money sees price reach a nice area → prepares to SELL 👉 This is why most traders BUY right at the peak and get trapped Fundamental: supports short-term increase Technical: still a downtrend 👉 High probability: This is a pullback to continue down – not a reversal How are you viewing the market? 🔵 BUY because of news 🔴 SELL according to structure Comment your perspective below 👇