Japanese Grand Prix betting tips: Predictions for the third race of the F1 season

Wait 5 sec.

Mercedes head to the Suzuka Circuit targeting a third successive one-two finish to start the season, but Ferrari will be hoping to make a race of it in this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix.The Scuderia finished third and fourth in both the Australian Grand Prix and the Chinese Grand Prix and secured a double-podium finish in the China Sprint, and a strong result in Suzuka could wrestle momentum away from the Silver Arrows.talkSPORT BET welcome offer – Get £30 in free betsJapanese Grand Prix Betting TipsLewis Hamilton to finish on the podium @ 4/1Both cars to finish in the points – Alpine @ 4/1 Oliver Bearman to finish in the top 6 @ 10/3Hamilton can build momentum in JapanMercedes seem to have all other constructors beaten for straight-line speed, but Suzuka Circuit provides the drivers and teams with a different challenge and Ferrari, who have had the second-fastest car by a significant margin in the opening two rounds of the season, may have a shot at competing with the World Constructors’ Championship leaders.The flurry of high-speed corners and lack of flat-out straights that are present in Melbourne and Shanghai could help to negate some of the advantage held by Mercedes but, even if the Silver Arrows do still have the quickest package, Lewis Hamilton still holds a good chance of a podium.The seven-time world champion claimed his first Grand Prix podium for Ferrari in China after an excellent Sprint performance on the Saturday, and he has an excellent record at the Japanese Grand Prix.Only Michael Schumacher has won in Japan more times than Hamilton, and he has added a further three top-three finishes to his five wins at Suzuka.Alpine resurgence backed to continueAfter a miserable 2025 season, Alpine showed some eye-catching pace during pre-season testing and that promise has transferred to race results in the opening two rounds of 2026.Pierre Gasly got the rejuvenated team off to a points-winning start in Melbourne by taking 10th in the Australian Grand Prix, and they saw further improvement in China.Franco Colapinto earned his first points for Alpine and, with Pierre Gasly taking sixth, it secured Alpine’s first double-points finish since the chaotic 2024 Sao Paulo Grand Prix, which saw both Gasly and then-teammate Esteban Ocon finish on the podium.It is clear that Alpine have taken a big step forward this season and, with other teams still struggling with reliability, a bit of luck from their perspective could see a second successive double-points finish for the Enstone-based team.Bearman to shine again at SuzukaAnother midfield team to have taken a big step forward in the early stages of the 2026 regulations is Haas, and Oliver Bearman in particular appears to be thriving.The young Briton finished seventh in the season opener in Melbourne and an excellent fifth in the Chinese Grand Prix.That was Bearman’s third top-six finish in the last seven Grands Prix and, if other teams continue to suffer mechanical problems, which is to be expected this early into a major regulation change, he could consolidate fifth place in the World Drivers’ Championship.talkSPORT BET welcome offer – Get £30 in free bets18+ New customers only. Opt in, deposit and bet £10 on any sports market at 1/1+ odds within 7 days of sign up. Get 3x£10 in Free Bets for set sports markets. Free Bets expire in 7 days. Scroll for T&Cs. GambleAware.org | Please gamble responsibly  Remember to gamble responsiblyA responsible gambler is someone who:Establishes time and monetary limits before playingOnly gambles with money they can afford to loseNever chase their lossesDoesn’t gamble if they’re upset, angry or depressedGamCare – www.gamcare.org.ukGamble Aware – www.begambleaware.orgFor help with a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 or go to www.gamstop.co.uk to be excluded from all UK-regulated gambling websites.Commercial content notice: Taking one of the bookmaker offers featured in this article may result in a payment to talkSPORT. 18+. T&Cs apply. gambleaware.org