BIS triennial survey 2025: FX futures gain groundEuro FX FuturesCME_DL:6E1!satelysfxEvery three years, the triennial survey published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) serves as a key reference for the foreign exchange industry. In a historically decentralized FX market, dominated by over-the-counter (OTC) trading and lacking a central transaction registry, this survey coordinated by central banks provides a unique view of the market’s true structure: volumes, instruments, participants, trading venues, and underlying trends. The latest edition, whose final version was published in December 2025, was particularly anticipated. Since the previous 2022 survey, the FX market has undergone major transformations: rapid monetary tightening cycles, a sustained rise in interest rates, higher hedging costs, and continued technological change. In this context, the report sheds light on a key development: the growing relative importance of listed instruments (futures and options) compared with their OTC counterparts. FX futures vs. OTC: a structural shift since 2022 The core of the FX market remains largely OTC, especially for FX swaps and customized funding needs. The 2025 report does not challenge this fact. However, it clearly shows that FX futures have gained ground since 2022, not by replacing OTC trading, but by assuming a more structuring role than before. In 2022: futures still seen as peripheral In the previous report, FX futures appeared mainly as tactical instruments, used by certain quantitative strategies, more active during volatility spikes, or relatively disconnected from the institutional core of the FX market. OTC instruments were still the near-exclusive tool for managing exposures and large flows. In 2025: a change in status The 2025 report highlights a notable shift. FX futures are now used more regularly, not merely opportunistically, and are better integrated into risk management processes. They have been adopted by a broader base of participants, particularly on the institutional buy side. This evolution is driven by several structural factors emphasized by the BIS: contract standardization, which concentrates liquidity on a limited number of key maturities, central clearing, which reduces counterparty risk and simplifies collateral management, execution transparency, with visible order books and centralized price formation.In an environment where OTC trading is becoming more fragmented due to variation of trading methodologies (e.g. internalization, RFQs, bilateral execution), futures provide a clear anchor point for liquidity and price discovery. The report also implicitly suggests that during periods of volatility or stress, listed markets play a reference role when the readability of OTC markets deteriorates. Complementarity, not substitution A key message of the 2025 report is that the rise of FX futures has not come at the expense of OTC markets. Instead, the BIS describes a functional allocation of uses: OTC remains dominant for FX swaps, funding, and bespoke arrangements, FX futures are gaining importance for directional exposure, rapid risk adjustments, and liquidity observation. This complementarity contributes to the overall efficiency of the FX market by offering participants multiple channels suited to different needs. Is the same dynamic at work for listed options? Traditionally, FX options are overwhelmingly traded OTC. OTC options offer great flexibility (custom strikes, specific maturities, complex structures), which explains their historical dominance. The BIS 2025 report also notes that overall FX option usage has increased significantly since 2022. This rise is partly explained by higher hedging costs via forwards and FX swaps in a higher-rate environment. In this context, listed options have become an increasingly relevant alternative for certain uses, even though they remain a minority compared with OTC options. As with futures, several factors favor listed options: contract standardization, price transparency, easier access for mid-sized participants, and simpler integration into multi-asset portfolios. The report does not suggest a massive shift toward listed options, but it does highlight a faster relative growth in their usage compared with the previous cycle, particularly for simple hedging strategies or volatility exposure. What this means for retail traders For retail traders, these developments offer several important takeaways. Improved market visibility The growing role of listed instruments means that a larger share of FX activity becomes observable: volumes, implied volatility, reactions to macroeconomic announcements, and more. Clearer execution conditions Organized markets provide centralized and standardized execution, without bilateral negotiation. This reduces certain information asymmetries inherent to OTC trading. A broader toolkit Futures allow for straightforward directional exposure, while listed options enable alternative strategies: hedging, asymmetric scenarios, and volatility trading. More controllable risk management Especially through listed options, retail traders can define their maximum risk in advance at relatively low cost, something that is more difficult to achieve in spot FX or certain OTC products. Conclusion The BIS triennial survey of December 2025 shows that, since 2022, listed markets have gained relative importance compared with OTC trading, first through FX futures, and to a lesser extent through listed FX options. Without challenging the structural dominance of OTC markets, these instruments have established themselves as essential complements: more transparent, more standardized, and better suited to certain modern constraints. For retail traders, understanding this evolution helps to better interpret liquidity, enrich trading strategies, and navigate a changing FX market more effectively. --- When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/. This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.