Buy the bounce or let it crash?American Airlines Group Inc.BATS:AALreasonableFlam46485AAL struggling since March '25 and mirroring the S&P 500. The price bounced off COVID era low once in April in '25, but has since erased all gains from the year. It almost reclaimed the 200 W moving average in late February/early March, but lost all momentum after the War in Iran broke out. It tried to recover from a recent downswing, but closed below that trend's 23.6% Fib Retracement Line and is having trouble breaking through again indicating potential further breakdown. The War in Iran is disrupting oil supply. TSA pay issues have caused thousands of missed flights. Immigration + geopolitical policies are scaring people away from traveling to the US. Larger economy fears = reduced spending affecting the airline's loyalty/financing programs. I suspect a huge Q1 miss and probably a great buying opportunity. Some good news: the price is currently highly deviated on the low side, so a correction is likely in order and I cannot imagine the price tanking much lower than COVID lows. Also, when/if hostilities in Iran/Hormuz de-escalate we will see an rebound. The risk here appears to be pretty low and the upside in the short term is at least 2x, and maybe 4-5x in the long term going off of 2017's high.