Fundamental Market Analysis for March 30, 2026 USDJPYUS Dollar/Japanese YenSAXO:USDJPYFresh-Forexcast2004The USD/JPY pair is holding around 160.000, marking fresh multi-month highs on the back of demand for the dollar. The shift into safe-haven assets is linked to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, while for Japan higher energy costs worsen trade terms and add pressure on the yen. However, at current levels the risk of official intervention is increasing. Japanese regulators’ messaging is becoming firmer: a weaker yen pushes up import prices and affects inflation, so the Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the exchange rate and does not rule out more active steps on rates. The combination of intervention risk and expectations of gradual policy tightening by the Bank of Japan increases the likelihood of a downside correction in USD/JPY. Any signs of a softer dollar—either from easing tensions or more moderate Fed signals—could accelerate the return of demand for the yen. For today, the priority is selling the pair on pullbacks. Trading recommendation: SELL 160.000, SL 160.200, TP 159.300