Retailinvestors have dialed back their expectations for AI stocks and the so-calledMagnificent 7 technology companies, while their exposure to commodities hasreached its highest level in nearly three years, according to a quarterlysurvey published today (Wednesday) by eToro.Singapore Summit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!)The poll of11,000 retail investors across 13 countries, conducted between February 12 and27, found that 43% expect AI-related stocks to rise in 2026, down from 52% theprior quarter. The share expecting the Magnificent 7 to beat the broader marketfell to 40%, from 47% in the previous survey. Bothfigures represent the lowest readings since eToro first posed the question inQ4 2024, the company said. The survey closed before the recent escalationinvolving Iran, meaning the numbers capture investor positioning ahead of thatconflict.AI Optimism Cools AfterEarnings ScrutinyeToro'sglobal market strategist Lale Akoner attributed the shift to a more consideredstance on mega-cap tech rather than a wholesale departure from AI. "Theshift in expectations suggests retail investors are becoming more measuredabout mega-cap tech rather than turning away from the AI themealtogether," she said. "Recent earnings volatility and increasingscrutiny around capital expenditure appear to be encouraging a more selectiveapproach."Akoner alsopointed to what she described as a structural change in how investors thinkabout portfolio concentration. "After a prolonged period where a smallgroup of companies accounted for a significant share of market gains, investorsare becoming more conscious of concentration risk," she said. The datasuggests some retail participants may now be looking to broaden exposure beyondAI leaders, including toward cyclical stocks and other asset classes, the firmadded.The coolingsentiment tracks with a broaderpattern of record retail trading activity observed in early 2026, when CitadelSecurities reported individual investor demand hitting all-time highs, withcapital flows broadening well beyond technology into materials, real estate,and industrials.Commodities OwnershipClimbs to Highest Since 2023Retailexposure to commodities reached 32% of investors surveyed, up from 30% theprevious quarter and the highest recorded since eToro introduced the questionin Q3 2023, the company said. Among those with commodity holdings, gold is themost widely owned asset, with 69% reporting exposure. Silver follows at 35%,oil at 29%, natural gas at 20%, and copper at 18%.Investorsoffered a range of reasons for their gold positions. The top motivations citedwere its role as a store of value (32%), a hedge against inflation (28%), andexpectations of further price appreciation (27%). Safe-haven demand duringvolatility was cited by 26%, diversification benefits by 22%, and protectionagainst US dollar weakness by 15%.The surveydata arrives alongside a sustained rally in precious metals. Goldman Sachsraised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce in January, citingprivate-sector diversification as the key driver, while the World GoldCouncil has separately flagged downside risk scenarios of up to 20%, illustrating thedegree of uncertainty around the metal's path in 2026. Thatvolatility has drawn increased retail trading flows into gold and silver-linkedinstruments at online brokers globally."Evenbefore the latest geopolitical developments, retail investors were increasingtheir exposure to tangible assets," Akoner said. "Gold in particularappears to be viewed less as a short-term trade and more as a strategic hedgeand diversifier, especially as the momentum-driven rally begins tomoderate."Conflict Ties Recession asInvestors' Top FearFor thefirst time in the survey series, international conflict ranked level with theglobal economy and recession risk as the leading concern among retailinvestors. Some 22% cited geopolitical conflict as the biggest threat to theirportfolios, up from 17% the prior quarter, matching the share who pointed to aglobal economic downturn. A year ago,the rankings looked quite different: the global economy was first at 23%,inflation second at 21%, and international conflict third at 18%.Akonernoted the elevation of geopolitical risk had been building before the latestMiddle East developments. "Inrecent years, markets have had to navigate a series of global flashpoints,making investors far more attuned to the potential impact of geopoliticalevents," she said. "The fact that international conflict now ranksalongside recession fears as the biggest perceived threat highlights howclosely retail investors are watching global developments and recognising theirpotential implications for markets and portfolios."Thatheightened attentiveness fits with broaderresearch suggesting retail investors have grown more sophisticated in their macro awareness, withsome industry analysis showing they increasingly behave as rational economicactors rather than reactive participants. A newgeneration of Gen Z traders entering the market in early 2026 appears to be reinforcing thattrend, bringing with it a stronger appetite for diversification and riskmanagement.eToro's Own Metrics ShowSteady ExpansionThe surveycomes as eToro continues to grow its client base. The company reportedrecord net contribution of $868 million for full-year 2025, up 10% year-on-year, with fundedaccounts reaching 3.81 million. Despite therecord results, the stockfaced selling pressure in the weeks following the earnings release, reflecting a market environment inwhich investor expectations have become harder to satisfy even with strongunderlying numbers.The RetailInvestor Beat survey is conducted quarterly. The Q1 2026 edition polled 11,000participants across 13 countries between February 12 and 27, 2026.This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.